{"id":15568,"date":"2023-01-27T08:15:16","date_gmt":"2023-01-27T14:15:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/?p=15568"},"modified":"2023-01-27T08:19:17","modified_gmt":"2023-01-27T14:19:17","slug":"fitch-ratings-en-2023-economia-mexicana-crecera-5-veces-mas-que-la-de-estados-unidos","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/2023\/01\/27\/fitch-ratings-en-2023-economia-mexicana-crecera-5-veces-mas-que-la-de-estados-unidos\/","title":{"rendered":"Fitch Ratings: En 2023, econom\u00eda mexicana crecer\u00e1 5 veces m\u00e1s que la de Estados Unidos"},"content":{"rendered":"

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CIUDAD DE M\u00c9XICO.\u00a0<\/strong><\/em>El ciclo econ\u00f3mico de M\u00e9xico<\/strong> est\u00e1 muy integrado con el de su principal socio comercial, de tal manera que cada vez que Estados Unidos entra en recesi\u00f3n se dice que \u201cM\u00e9xico tiene una gripa, tiene una severa fiebre\u201d,<\/strong> pero este a\u00f1o parece que la econom\u00eda mexicana ser\u00e1 m\u00e1s resiliente y alcanzar\u00e1 un crecimiento de entre uno y 1.5 por ciento<\/strong>, una tasa cinco veces m\u00e1s alta que la del pa\u00eds vecino<\/strong>, explic\u00f3 Shelly Shetty, directora general de Fitch Ratings<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pese a estar en un a\u00f1o previo a las elecciones presidenciales, los riesgos pol\u00edticos en este punto no son preocupantes como para afectar la evaluaci\u00f3n crediticia de M\u00e9xico, dado que a\u00fan no se conoce a quien postular\u00e1 Morena \u2013el partido de Andr\u00e9s Manuel L\u00f3pez Obrador\u2013, ni tampoco existe un candidato en la oposici\u00f3n; es m\u00e1s, sobre esta \u00faltima ni siquiera se sabe si se mantendr\u00e1 unida alrededor de un aspirante com\u00fan, o se fragmentar\u00e1, agreg\u00f3 la analista.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Al destacar el caso de Brasil y Per\u00fa, dijo que la incertidumbre pol\u00edtica, puede empa\u00f1ar las perspectivas de actividad econ\u00f3mica, inversi\u00f3n y reformas.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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Creo que la volatilidad de la pol\u00edtica y un panorama m\u00e1s desafiante se est\u00e1 convirtiendo en una caracter\u00edstica de riesgo para la regi\u00f3n\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

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GRAN CALIFICACI\u00d3N\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Dijo que entre los posibles riesgos fiscales en M\u00e9xico para 2023 est\u00e1 que al ser un a\u00f1o prelectoral exista una presi\u00f3n por el lado de los ingresos, sobre todo si caen los precios del petr\u00f3leo, y que el gobierno sacrifique parte del gasto en inversi\u00f3n para dirigirlo a proyectos prioritarios y programas sociales.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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Vamos a ver a los candidatos y sus plataformas pol\u00edticas, su orientaci\u00f3n, el tipo de reformas econ\u00f3micas que tal vez quieran hacer y qu\u00e9 \u00e1reas de continuidad pol\u00edtica podr\u00edamos tener\u201d, por ahora \u201ces claramente una discusi\u00f3n un poco temprana, pero en este momento realmente no estamos demasiado preocupados por las elecciones en M\u00e9xico\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Agreg\u00f3 que en el pa\u00eds, las transiciones han sido tersas, entre PRI, PAN y Morena.<\/span><\/p>\n

Durante un encuentro convocado por la firma de riesgo, al que asistieron directivos empresariales y analistas financieros, Shetty consider\u00f3 que M\u00e9xico mantiene m\u00e9tricas relativamente adecuadas para la valoraci\u00f3n de BBB- a su deuda (dentro del llamado \u201cgrado de inversi\u00f3n\u201d), con la perspectiva estable, porque ha mantenido el marco macroecon\u00f3mico y, a diferencia de otras econom\u00edas emergentes en la regi\u00f3n, \u201cno tiene que escalar de un gran hoyo fiscal\u201d ni cerr\u00f3 el a\u00f1o pasado con una inflaci\u00f3n de doble d\u00edgito.<\/span><\/p>\n

Si bien tiene una alta integraci\u00f3n con Estados Unidos, por el lado de las remesas, el comercio exterior y el turismo, aun as\u00ed se prev\u00e9 que para este a\u00f1o M\u00e9xico crecer\u00e1 entre uno y 1.5 por ciento, de acuerdo con los estimados de Fitch, mientras su principal socio comercial lo har\u00e1 0.2 por ciento, si no salda con una recesi\u00f3n anual, puntualiz\u00f3 la analista.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Parte de las m\u00e9tricas de M\u00e9xico se deben a que la deuda se ha mantenido contenida, hay una oportunidad de crecimiento por el lado de la relocalizaci\u00f3n de las cadenas de suministro \u2013el\u00a0nearshoring,\u00a0que tambi\u00e9n puede ser capitalizado en Asia\u2013 y a que el incremento de tasas de inter\u00e9s no ha afectado tanto a la demanda dom\u00e9stica, como s\u00ed lo ha hecho en Estados Unidos.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

La mayor tasa de inter\u00e9s de referencia \u2013que en M\u00e9xico ha sido elevada por el banco central en cinco puntos durante el \u00faltimo a\u00f1o, a 10.5 por ciento\u2013 est\u00e1 afectando de manera distinta a la demanda dom\u00e9stica de cada pa\u00eds, explic\u00f3 la directiva de Fitch. En Estados Unidos una mayor parte de la actividad econ\u00f3mica pasa por los canales financieros, mientras en M\u00e9xico los productos financieros y sus costos asociados no son tan extendidos en el consumo directo de la poblaci\u00f3n.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Sobre un desacoplamiento de la pol\u00edtica monetaria con la de la Reserva Federal (Fed), Shetty dijo que no se prev\u00e9 una reducci\u00f3n del margen, se espera que el banco central de Estados Unidos lleve su tasa a 5 por ciento este a\u00f1o, el Banco de M\u00e9xico a 11 y s\u00f3lo hasta 2024 la empiece a bajar para cerrar entre 9 y 9.5 por ciento.<\/span><\/p>\n

Shetty agreg\u00f3 que por ahora no se espera un cambio en la evaluaci\u00f3n que Fitch tiene sobre M\u00e9xico, pero un deterioro en la disciplina fiscal s\u00ed podr\u00eda implicar una reducci\u00f3n, sobre todo porque este a\u00f1o \u2013prelectoral\u2013 ya se da por hecho la ampliaci\u00f3n del d\u00e9ficit fiscal por un mayor gasto en programas sociales y proyectos de infraestructura.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Con informaci\u00f3n de La Jornada<\/span><\/p>\n

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  CIUDAD DE M\u00c9XICO.\u00a0El ciclo econ\u00f3mico de M\u00e9xico est\u00e1 muy integrado con el de su principal socio comercial, de tal […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":15570,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[2050],"tags":[455,269,2175,42,1879],"class_list":["post-15568","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economia","tag-crecimiento","tag-estados-unidos","tag-fitch-ratings","tag-mexico","tag-nearshoring"],"yoast_head":"\nFitch Ratings: En 2023, econom\u00eda mexicana crecer\u00e1 5 veces m\u00e1s que la de Estados Unidos - 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