{"id":27227,"date":"2023-12-11T00:57:36","date_gmt":"2023-12-11T06:57:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/?p=27227"},"modified":"2023-12-11T00:57:36","modified_gmt":"2023-12-11T06:57:36","slug":"pronostico-para-la-gubernatura","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/2023\/12\/11\/pronostico-para-la-gubernatura\/","title":{"rendered":"Pron\u00f3stico para la gubernatura"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>Por Pepe Valencia<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Esta vez plantear\u00e9 s\u00f3lo un pron\u00f3stico pol\u00edtico para el pr\u00f3ximo a\u00f1o.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Les adelantar\u00e9 qui\u00e9n creo que ganar\u00e1 la gubernatura de Veracruz y el porqu\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">De entrada les parecer\u00e1 una simpleza. No lo es. Vamos por partes.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">&#8211;Primer escenario: Si\u00a0 todos los veracruzanos que eligieron a Cuitl\u00e1huac Garc\u00eda, votaran en 2024 por Roc\u00edo Nahle y se repitiera la haza\u00f1a de Morena y\u00a0 partidos aliados de alcanzar la hist\u00f3rica cifra de un mill\u00f3n 700 mil sufragios en n\u00fameros redondeados, entonces ella ser\u00eda la pr\u00f3xima gobernadora.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Porque aunque ya no incidir\u00e1 directamente el efecto L\u00f3pez Obrador, s\u00ed contar\u00e1n mucho los programas sociales, sobre todo, el voto de m\u00e1s de un mill\u00f3n de adultos mayores que reciben pensi\u00f3n del bienestar.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Continuemos y analicemos el segundo escenario:\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">\u00a0 &#8211;Supongamos que los 500 mil que votaron por Pepe Yunes en 2018, decidieran volver a apoyarlo y que el mill\u00f3n 400 mil de ciudadanos que escogieron a Miguel \u00c1ngel Yunes M\u00e1rquez, le refrendaran su respaldo al PAN, obtendr\u00eda la coalici\u00f3n Fuerza y Coraz\u00f3n por Veracruz (PAN-PRI-PRD) alrededor de un mill\u00f3n 900 mil votos, suficientes para un triunfo holgado.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Hay otras variables que deben tomarse en cuenta, como el desgaste del partido en el gobierno, el hartazgo de la gente, las presiones o incluso amenazas desde el poder, la popularidad o decadencia de L\u00f3pez Obrador, un eventual elevado nivel de abstencionismo electoral, alg\u00fan poderoso imponderable,\u00a0 etc\u00e9tera.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">En cualquiera de estas circunstancias, es altamente probable la victoria de Pepe Yunes.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">El c\u00e1lculo de la votaci\u00f3n es hipot\u00e9tico y las cifras finales pueden ser distintas a las aqu\u00ed mencionadas favoreciendo eventualmente a Pepe.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-27228\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/FIRMA-EDITORIAL-PD-2.jpg?resize=1024%2C125&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"125\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/FIRMA-EDITORIAL-PD-2.jpg?w=1024&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/FIRMA-EDITORIAL-PD-2.jpg?resize=300%2C37&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/FIRMA-EDITORIAL-PD-2.jpg?resize=768%2C94&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Por Pepe Valencia Esta vez plantear\u00e9 s\u00f3lo un pron\u00f3stico pol\u00edtico para el pr\u00f3ximo a\u00f1o. Les adelantar\u00e9 qui\u00e9n creo que ganar\u00e1 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":23766,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[26],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-27227","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-columnistas"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Pron\u00f3stico para la gubernatura - Pol\u00edticos al Desnudo<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/2023\/12\/11\/pronostico-para-la-gubernatura\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Pron\u00f3stico para la gubernatura - Pol\u00edticos al Desnudo\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Por Pepe Valencia Esta vez plantear\u00e9 s\u00f3lo un pron\u00f3stico pol\u00edtico para el pr\u00f3ximo a\u00f1o. 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