{"id":35271,"date":"2024-04-16T01:42:20","date_gmt":"2024-04-16T06:42:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/?p=35271"},"modified":"2024-04-16T01:42:20","modified_gmt":"2024-04-16T06:42:20","slug":"turquia-propuso-congelar-16-anos-el-conflicto-entre-rusia-y-ucrania","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/2024\/04\/16\/turquia-propuso-congelar-16-anos-el-conflicto-entre-rusia-y-ucrania\/","title":{"rendered":"Turqu\u00eda propuso \u201ccongelar\u201d 16 a\u00f1os el conflicto entre Rusia y Ucrania"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span lang=\"es-ES-u-co-trad\" style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Desde comienzos de este mes, una nueva iniciativa para establecer de inmediato un alto el fuego en la guerra en Ucrania est\u00e1 sobre el escritorio de los presidentes ruso, Vladimir Putin, y ucranio, Volodymir Zelensky.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span lang=\"es-ES-u-co-trad\" style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Pero a juzgar por la falta de reacciones p\u00fablicas de Mosc\u00fa y Kiev todo indica que va a correr el mismo destino \u2013terminar empolvada en el archivero de las oportunidades desaprovechadas\u2013 de las ocho anteriores propuestas, desde el 24 de febrero de 2022 cuando comenz\u00f3 la invasi\u00f3n rusa, para sentarse a negociar el fin del derramamiento de sangre entre estos dos pueblos eslavos, ahora enfrentados para siempre.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><span lang=\"es-ES-u-co-trad\">El plan, cuya autor\u00eda se atribuye al presidente de Turqu\u00eda, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, tras la debacle que sufri\u00f3 en las recientes elecciones municipales necesitado de anotarse alg\u00fan \u00e9xito en el plano internacional como mediador, propone a Rusia y Ucrania, <\/span><span lang=\"es-ES-u-co-trad\"><em>congelar<\/em><\/span><span lang=\"es-ES-u-co-trad\"> el conflicto durante 16 a\u00f1os y resolverlo en 2040, cuando en principio, si se respeta la Constituci\u00f3n vigente, el Kremlin tendr\u00eda que tener un nuevo titular (Putin, en el supuesto de aspirar a una nueva reelecci\u00f3n terminar\u00eda su sexto y \u00faltima mandato presidencial en 2036).<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span lang=\"es-ES-u-co-trad\" style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Erdogan no hace planteamientos excluyentes (por ejemplo, respetar la integridad territorial de Ucrania y reconocer la incorporaci\u00f3n a la Federaci\u00f3n Rusa de cuatro regiones ucranias, sin hablar ya de Crimea) y parte de que ambas partes, Mosc\u00fa y Kiev, tienen que hacer concesiones para poder llegar a un acuerdo.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span lang=\"es-ES-u-co-trad\" style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Son medidas que los observadores consideran razonables y equilibradas, algunas similares a las contenidas en la iniciativa de China y cuidadosas de no provocar el abierto rechazo ucranio como sucede con algunos puntos de la variante de Pek\u00edn que, por mencionar un caso, exige levantar todas las sanciones contra Rusia.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span lang=\"es-ES-u-co-trad\" style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">De acuerdo con las filtraciones interesadas que llegan desde Ankara, la parte medular de la propuesta es poner fin a los hostilidades en el lugar donde est\u00e9n posicionadas las respectivas tropas \u2013siguiendo el modelo de la guerra de Corea\u2013 y resolver sus diferencias de fondo en 2040, mediante sendos referendos.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span lang=\"es-ES-u-co-trad\" style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Estos plebiscitos se tendr\u00edan que celebrar en las cuatro regiones que se anexion\u00f3 Mosc\u00fa para determinar si la poblaci\u00f3n quiere permanecer en Rusia o volver a ser parte de Ucrania y en la propia Ucrania, para aprobar la pol\u00edtica interna y exterior de su gobierno, organizados todos bajo supervisi\u00f3n de Naciones Unidas y otros organismos internacionales y con vigilancia de reconocidos y suficientes observadores de otros pa\u00edses.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span lang=\"es-ES-u-co-trad\" style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Turqu\u00eda incluye otros puntos innegociables: entre otros, que Ucrania se comprometa a asumir un estatus de neutralidad hasta 2040 y, en esa medida, renuncie a ingresar a la Organizaci\u00f3n del Tratado del Atl\u00e1ntico Norte (OTAN); que Rusia, y Estados Unidos, proclamen que nunca y bajo ninguna circunstancia recurrir\u00e1n al armamento nuclear para influir en el curso de la guerra en Ucrania; que Mosc\u00fa y Kiev procedan a intercambiar prisioneros de guerra bajo la f\u00f3rmula \u201ctodos por todos\u201d; que asuman la obligaci\u00f3n de no entrometerse en los asuntos internos del otro y, sobre todo, que renuncien a desestabilizar a los respectivos gobiernos; que Rusia no se oponga al ingreso de Ucrania en la Uni\u00f3n Europea.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span lang=\"es-ES-u-co-trad\" style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">En opini\u00f3n de analistas, ni Mosc\u00fa ni Kiev parecen dispuestos a hacer la m\u00e1s m\u00ednima concesi\u00f3n. Rusia cree que este verano de 2024 podr\u00e1 tener bajo su control todo el territorio de la regi\u00f3n de Donietsk (cuando empez\u00f3 la guerra, la llamada Rep\u00fablica Popular de Donietsk ocupaba s\u00f3lo una tercera parte de su superficie, igual que Lugansk) y que Ucrania dejar\u00e1 de recibir armamento occidental en las cantidades que necesita, quedando en una situaci\u00f3n cada vez m\u00e1s agobiante.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span lang=\"es-ES-u-co-trad\" style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Y Ucrania sigue convencida de que, cuando se superen las dificultades para normalizar el suministro de armas occidentales, estar\u00e1 en condiciones de empezar a recuperar los territorios perdidos, creando un contexto m\u00e1s favorable para presionar a Rusia a retirar sus tropas, una de las principales condiciones de la llamada \u201cF\u00f3rmula para la Paz\u201d, que defiende Kiev para sentarse a negociar con Mosc\u00fa y que el Kremlin considera \u201cp\u00e9rdida de tiempo\u201d al no invitar a representantes rusos y no tomar en cuenta lo que denomina \u201crealidad sobre el terreno\u201d, eufemismo por territorios anexionados por Rusia.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span lang=\"es-ES-u-co-trad\" style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">La pr\u00f3xima conferencia de paz para Ucrania, seg\u00fan la f\u00f3rmula de Kiev, tendr\u00e1 lugar cerca de Lucerna, Suiza, el 15 y 16 de junio y, desde ahora, el Kremlin la descalifica.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span lang=\"es-ES-u-co-trad\" style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Su portavoz, Dimitri Peskov, dijo hace poco que \u201ccarece de sentido impulsar un proceso negociador sin una de las partes del conflicto\u201d, por lo cual en Suiza \u201cm\u00e1s que buscar oportunidades para la paz, se va a delinear una escalada b\u00e9lica\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Desde comienzos de este mes, una nueva iniciativa para establecer de inmediato un alto el fuego en la guerra en 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