{"id":36959,"date":"2024-05-07T17:27:08","date_gmt":"2024-05-07T22:27:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/?p=36959"},"modified":"2024-05-07T17:27:08","modified_gmt":"2024-05-07T22:27:08","slug":"las-encuestas-electorales","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/2024\/05\/07\/las-encuestas-electorales\/","title":{"rendered":"Las encuestas electorales"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong> Todav\u00eda no se puede saber con toda certeza quienes ser\u00e1n los ganadores<br \/>\n\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Consultas a mil personas, cuando son m\u00e1s de 136 millones de habitantes<br \/>\n\u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Resultados de acuerdo con el candidato que las contrata<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Por Miguel \u00c1ngel Cristiani G.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">A estas alturas del partido, cuando estamos a 26 d\u00edas de las elecciones de presidenta de la rep\u00fablica, gobernador, senadores y diputados, todav\u00eda no se puede saber con toda certeza quienes ser\u00e1n las y los que resulten ganadores.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Son muchas las empresas que se dedican a hacer encuestas, pero si vemos los resultados que se han difundido hasta la fecha, pareciera que cada una le da el triunfo a quien se las encarga o patrocina.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">\u00bfConoce usted alguna encuestadora que se pueda decir, esa s\u00ed les atina a los ganadores?<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Eso se debe en buena medida, porque las encuestas que hacen la mayor\u00eda de las empresas, son por la v\u00eda telef\u00f3nica, a un universo de mil a dos mil personas, que para una poblaci\u00f3n en estos momentos de m\u00e1s de 136 millones de habitantes, no son nada.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Se supone que quienes est\u00e1n aplicando encuestas de opini\u00f3n entre la ciudadan\u00eda para conocer los posibles candidatos ganadores en la pr\u00f3xima elecci\u00f3n del 2 de junio, deber\u00edan de estar registrados ante el INE y el OPLE, para entregar la metodolog\u00eda que van a utilizar y el universo de los encuestados.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Pero los resultados hasta ahora, de las pasadas elecciones, dejan mucho que desear y la credibilidad de las encuestas est\u00e1 por los suelos.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Y como en la vi\u00f1a del se\u00f1or, hay de todo.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Hay empresas encuestadoras que presentan resultados, de acuerdo al candidato que los contrata.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Otras dan resultados reales, pero solamente son para el consumo de los candidatos.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Por eso es tan importante que registren su metodolog\u00eda ante el INE y el OPLE, porque en algunos casos pareciera que por mera casualidad, le atinan al ganador, pero no por las cifras que manejan.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Por ejemplo, en Campeche 2021 la encuestadora Profesionales en Estudios y Mercado y Cultura predijo que Layda Sansores ganar\u00eda con 60% del voto. El error fue garrafal, pues Sansores obtuvo solo 33%. Se equivocaron casi por el doble. Otro caso penoso fue Arias Consultores en CDMX 2018. En su momento la encuestadora predijo que Claudia Sheinbaum ganar\u00eda con 74% del voto. Tuvo solo 47%.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Mas recientemente se ha visto, que los encargados de levantar esas encuestas, tienen relaci\u00f3n familiar o empresarial con alguno de los candidatos y por eso es que sus resultados parecieran que fueran hechos por Ripley -aunque usted no lo crea-.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Hay quienes tienen pr\u00e1cticas raras de aparente manipulaci\u00f3n en sus reportes, donde visualmente coloca arriba a un candidato que tiene menos puntos.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Pero aparte de la metodolog\u00eda y la calidad de las encuestadoras, lo cierto es que hay elecciones que resulta m\u00e1s f\u00e1cil predecir y en consecuencia atinarles a los ganadores.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Por eso es que se da tanto el fen\u00f3meno de los llamados \u201cchapulines\u201d partidistas, que militando supuestamente en un instituto pol\u00edtico, cuando se dan cuenta que no van a ganar o no les dan una candidatura, se pasan a otro partido con mayores posibilidades.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">En las elecciones de este 2024, las \u00faltimas encuestas p\u00fablicas de las que se consideran como las dos mejores encuestadoras dan la victoria a Morena.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Poligrama le da a Claudia 52%, a X\u00f3chitl 33% y a M\u00e1ynez 7% (Abril 3, 2024). Reforma le da una victoria a\u00fan m\u00e1s holgada a Morena con 58% (34% a X\u00f3chitl y 8% a M\u00e1ynez) (Marzo 6-12, 2024).<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Pero como dicen en el beisbol \u201cesto no se acaba, hasta que se acaba\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Y cualquiera puede lanzar la pelota fuera del campo y remontar el marcador con un batazo de jonr\u00f3n.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Todav\u00eda no se puede saber con toda certeza quienes ser\u00e1n los ganadores \u2022\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Consultas a mil personas, cuando son m\u00e1s [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":783,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[26],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-36959","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-columnistas"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - 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