{"id":38022,"date":"2024-05-21T08:20:33","date_gmt":"2024-05-21T13:20:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/?p=38022"},"modified":"2024-05-21T08:20:33","modified_gmt":"2024-05-21T13:20:33","slug":"superpeso-desalentara-a-las-exportaciones-y-al-nearshoring","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/2024\/05\/21\/superpeso-desalentara-a-las-exportaciones-y-al-nearshoring\/","title":{"rendered":"Superpeso desalentar\u00e1 a las exportaciones y al nearshoring"},"content":{"rendered":"

La econom\u00eda mexicana est\u00e1 perdiendo competitividad por la fortaleza que mantiene el peso frente al d\u00f3lar desde el 2022, advirtieron analistas del Bank of America Securities.<\/span><\/p>\n

El tipo de cambio real se ha fortalecido 32% desde enero del 2022, lo que podr\u00eda explicar por qu\u00e9 no est\u00e1 recibiendo M\u00e9xico m\u00e1s Inversi\u00f3n Extranjera Directa (IED) pese a realizar operaciones de nearshoring y despu\u00e9s de haberse convertido en el principal socio comercial de Estados Unidos, resaltaron.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cCreemos que el cambio en las cadenas de suministro persistir\u00e1 como tendencia estructural, sin embargo un peso sobrevaluado podr\u00eda convertirse en un lastre para la econom\u00eda y las exportaciones mexicanas\u201d, refirieron los especialistas.<\/span><\/p>\n

Al interior de un an\u00e1lisis distribuido entre sus clientes, destacaron que \u201chasta ahora, las ganancias de M\u00e9xico como socio comercial de Estados Unidos han continuado a pesar de un tipo de cambio muy fuerte como se refleja en el s\u00faper peso\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sin embargo, advirtieron que \u201ca pesar de realizar operaciones de nearshoring y convertirse en el principal socio comercial de Estados Unidos, M\u00e9xico en realidad no est\u00e1 recibiendo m\u00e1s IED y una raz\u00f3n detr\u00e1s de esto podr\u00eda ser que el tipo de cambio real se mantiene muy fuerte\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

En nuestra opini\u00f3n, \u2013contin\u00faa el an\u00e1lisis\u2013, esto habla de la importancia de los cambios globales en las cadenas de suministro que se centran en la resiliencia y la gesti\u00f3n de riesgos. Pero un peso sobrevaluado, como se ha mantenido, puede arrastrar a las exportaciones y los prospectos de inversi\u00f3n\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

Explicaron que en contraste del peso mexicano, el yuan chino se debilit\u00f3 13% tambi\u00e9n desde enero de 2022. Esto significa que el peso mexicano es ahora 55% m\u00e1s caro que el yuan chino en t\u00e9rminos efectivos reales.<\/span><\/p>\n

Un peso menos fuerte incentivar\u00eda la llegada de inversiones relacionadas con la relocalizaci\u00f3n, el llamado nearshoring y facilitar\u00e1 \u201cque se cosechen mejor los cambios del comercio mundial\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

No es la puerta trasera de China hacia EU<\/strong><\/span>
\nEn el an\u00e1lisis titulado \u201cNuevas tarifas, signos de alineaci\u00f3n de M\u00e9xico con Norteam\u00e9rica\u201d, admitieron que M\u00e9xico ha sido de los pa\u00edses que han ganado participaci\u00f3n de mercado en las importaciones estadounidenses desde el 2018 y solo le ha superado Vietnam.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mientras China es el que m\u00e1s ha disminuido su participaci\u00f3n en el comercio con la primera econom\u00eda del mundo, pero est\u00e1 exportando m\u00e1s a esos mismos pa\u00edses, o sea, M\u00e9xico y Vietnam.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cEste reajuste del comercio chino est\u00e1 levantando sospechas en algunos pa\u00edses, incluso en M\u00e9xico, pues advierten que la econom\u00eda que lidera Andr\u00e9s Manuel L\u00f3pez Obrador puede estarse convirtiendo en \u201cla puerta trasera de China hacia Estados Unidos\u201d, refirieron.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sin embargo, en la instituci\u00f3n financiera descartan que M\u00e9xico est\u00e9 desviando importaciones chinas a Estados Unidos \u201cal menos no, hasta un punto perceptible en los datos macro\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

Los aranceles<\/strong><\/span>
\nEl pasado 22 de abril, M\u00e9xico impuso aranceles sobre 544 bienes importados; una medida que seguir\u00e1 vigente hasta el 23 de abril del 2026. Estos aranceles oscilan entre 5 y 50% sobre productos como acero, aluminio, textiles, pl\u00e1sticos, material el\u00e9ctrico y de transporte entre otros.<\/span><\/p>\n

Estos aranceles se impusieron sobre pa\u00edses con los que M\u00e9xico no tiene acuerdo comercial, como es China, lo que BofA estima afectar\u00e1 a 15% de las importaciones de China.<\/span><\/p>\n

En el an\u00e1lisis, refieren al citado decreto para explicar que \u201cfueron impuestos con el fin de brindar certidumbre y condiciones justas de mercado a sectores vulnerables de la industria nacional\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

Las razones citadas por el gobierno en el decreto son la competencia, el crecimiento econ\u00f3mico, la resiliencia de la cadena de suministro, as\u00ed como el fortalecimiento de la industria nacional.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ya lo hab\u00edan advertido<\/strong><\/span>
\nLa directora de an\u00e1lisis econ\u00f3mico, cambiario y burs\u00e1til de Monex, Janneth Quiroz, ya hab\u00eda advertido que incluso el peso fuerte estar\u00eda desalentando a las multinacionales para concretar en el corto plazo sus anuncios de inversi\u00f3n relacionadas con el nearshoring.<\/span><\/p>\n

Por su parte, el presidente de la Confederaci\u00f3n de C\u00e1maras Industriales de los Estados Unidos Mexicanos (Concamin), Jos\u00e9 Abugaber, hab\u00eda advertido que el peso fuerte pod\u00eda afectar al 40% de la industria del vestido, calzado y electr\u00f3nicos. Suben los precios y hacen menos competitivos los productos que van a preferir irse a China.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

La econom\u00eda mexicana est\u00e1 perdiendo competitividad por la fortaleza que mantiene el peso frente al d\u00f3lar desde el 2022, advirtieron 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