{"id":38100,"date":"2024-05-22T09:10:02","date_gmt":"2024-05-22T14:10:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/?p=38100"},"modified":"2024-05-22T09:10:02","modified_gmt":"2024-05-22T14:10:02","slug":"mayores-deficits-y-mas-deuda-publica-son-un-riesgo-crediticio-para-mexico-fitch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/2024\/05\/22\/mayores-deficits-y-mas-deuda-publica-son-un-riesgo-crediticio-para-mexico-fitch\/","title":{"rendered":"Mayores d\u00e9ficits y m\u00e1s deuda p\u00fablica son un riesgo crediticio para M\u00e9xico: Fitch"},"content":{"rendered":"

El pr\u00f3ximo gobierno de M\u00e9xico, que ser\u00e1 elegido el 2 de junio, enfrenta tres riesgos principales para la calificaci\u00f3n crediticia soberana, incluida la posibilidad de que mayores d\u00e9ficits fiscales conduzcan a una mayor deuda p\u00fablica, dijo Fitch Ratings en una entrevista con Reuters.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Los otros dos riesgos principales que podr\u00edan tener implicaciones negativas para la calificaci\u00f3n crediticia ser\u00edan pol\u00edticas que perjudiquen el crecimiento econ\u00f3mico de M\u00e9xico o la posibilidad de un deterioro de la gobernabilidad y el Estado de derecho, se\u00f1al\u00f3 el director de deuda soberana de Fitch Ratings, Carlos Morales.<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

El presidente Andr\u00e9s Manuel L\u00f3pez Obrador mantuvo en gran medida las finanzas p\u00fablicas de M\u00e9xico en orden durante sus primeros cinco a\u00f1os en el cargo mientras aplicaba amplias pol\u00edticas de austeridad presupuestaria, incluso durante los picos de la pandemia.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pero en 2024, su \u00faltimo a\u00f1o al frente de la segunda econom\u00eda m\u00e1s grande de Am\u00e9rica Latina, estima que el d\u00e9ficit fiscal aumentar\u00e1 a un 5.9 por ciento del producto interno bruto (PIB), medido por los Requerimientos Financieros del Sector P\u00fablico, mientras busca concluir importantes proyectos de infraestructura.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cSi los d\u00e9ficits fiscales se mantienen consistentes con un aumento acelerado de la deuda p\u00fablica, eso pudiera afectar la calificaci\u00f3n soberana de M\u00e9xico\u201d, dijo Carlos Morales, director de deuda soberana de Fitch Ratings.<\/span><\/p>\n

Esto supone un aumento respecto de los d\u00e9ficits de 4.3 por ciento del PIB en 2023 y 2022.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cEs un paso en la direcci\u00f3n equivocada, es un d\u00e9ficit bastante alto que pudiera conllevar riesgos de largo plazo (…) En dado caso que esto contin\u00fae en los pr\u00f3ximos a\u00f1os, durante la pr\u00f3xima administraci\u00f3n, eso definitivamente ser\u00eda un cr\u00e9dito negativo\u201d, afirm\u00f3.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sin embargo, Morales subray\u00f3 que a medida que la construcci\u00f3n y el gasto en los emblem\u00e1ticos proyectos de infraestructura de L\u00f3pez Obrador lleguen a su fin, espera que los mayores d\u00e9ficits fiscales sean transitorios.<\/span><\/p>\n

Morales dijo que los otros dos riesgos principales que podr\u00edan tener implicaciones negativas para la calificaci\u00f3n crediticia ser\u00edan pol\u00edticas que perjudiquen el crecimiento econ\u00f3mico de M\u00e9xico o la posibilidad de un deterioro de la gobernabilidad y el Estado de derecho.<\/span><\/p>\n

Por otro lado, si el crecimiento econ\u00f3mico resulta m\u00e1s s\u00f3lido, los d\u00e9ficits fiscales m\u00e1s peque\u00f1os conducen a una reducci\u00f3n de la deuda p\u00fablica o hay una mejora de la gobernanza y el Estado de derecho, eso ser\u00eda positivo para la calificaci\u00f3n crediticia.<\/span><\/p>\n

El futuro presidente de M\u00e9xico tambi\u00e9n tendr\u00e1 que lidiar con la petrolera estatal Pemex, que durante a\u00f1os ha sido una preocupaci\u00f3n para las finanzas p\u00fablicas por ser la compa\u00f1\u00eda energ\u00e9tica con mayor carga financiera del mundo.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cLo que ha sucedido es que la deuda de Pemex se ha estabilizado, pero en deterioro o en detrimento de las cuentas fiscales del gobierno federal (…) nuestra expectativa es que el apoyo del gobierno seguir\u00e1 en la pr\u00f3xima administraci\u00f3n independiente de qui\u00e9n gane las elecciones\u201d, dijo.<\/span><\/p>\n

En diciembre, Fitch afirm\u00f3 la calificaci\u00f3n soberana de M\u00e9xico en BBB-, con un panorama \u201cestable\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

El pr\u00f3ximo gobierno de M\u00e9xico, que ser\u00e1 elegido el 2 de junio, enfrenta tres riesgos principales para la calificaci\u00f3n crediticia […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":38101,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[2050],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-38100","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economia"],"yoast_head":"\nMayores d\u00e9ficits y m\u00e1s deuda p\u00fablica son un riesgo crediticio para M\u00e9xico: Fitch - 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El tema del FOBAPROA\u2026","rel":"","context":"En \u00abOPINI\u00d3N\u00bb","block_context":{"text":"OPINI\u00d3N","link":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/category\/columnistas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/lead-109.png?fit=1200%2C658&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/lead-109.png?fit=1200%2C658&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/lead-109.png?fit=1200%2C658&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/lead-109.png?fit=1200%2C658&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/lead-109.png?fit=1200%2C658&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":87059,"url":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/2026\/07\/20\/claudia-sheinbaum-cuida-su-relacion-con-eu\/","url_meta":{"origin":38100,"position":5},"title":"Claudia Sheinbaum cuida su relaci\u00f3n con EU","author":"Redacci\u00f3n Pol\u00edticos","date":"20 de julio de 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"ALMA GRANDE POR \u00c1NGEL \u00c1LVARO PE\u00d1A La imagen de la presidenta de M\u00e9xico, Claudia Sheinbaum, junto al presidente de Estados Unidos, Donald Trump, y al primer ministro de Canad\u00e1, Mark Carney, durante la final de la Copa Mundial de la FIFA 2026 en Nueva York tiene un significado que rebasa\u2026","rel":"","context":"En \u00abOPINI\u00d3N\u00bb","block_context":{"text":"OPINI\u00d3N","link":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/category\/columnistas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/BANNER-LOPEZ-DORIGA-DIGITAL-3.jpg?fit=800%2C445&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/BANNER-LOPEZ-DORIGA-DIGITAL-3.jpg?fit=800%2C445&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/BANNER-LOPEZ-DORIGA-DIGITAL-3.jpg?fit=800%2C445&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/BANNER-LOPEZ-DORIGA-DIGITAL-3.jpg?fit=800%2C445&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/deficit-deuda-publica-fitch-1024x529-1.jpg?fit=1024%2C529&ssl=1","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38100","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=38100"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38100\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/38101"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=38100"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=38100"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=38100"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}