{"id":39058,"date":"2024-06-03T02:14:10","date_gmt":"2024-06-03T07:14:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/?p=39058"},"modified":"2024-06-03T02:14:10","modified_gmt":"2024-06-03T07:14:10","slug":"los-retos-economicos-del-proximo-presidente-de-mexico","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/2024\/06\/03\/los-retos-economicos-del-proximo-presidente-de-mexico\/","title":{"rendered":"Los retos econ\u00f3micos del pr\u00f3ximo presidente de M\u00e9xico"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Tras la ca\u00edda econ\u00f3mica global por la pandemia, comienza la recuperaci\u00f3n acompa\u00f1ada de buenas noticias. Por ejemplo, la amenaza de una posible recesi\u00f3n en Estados Unidos se debilita, algunos economistas mejoran los pron\u00f3sticos para el crecimiento del PIB de M\u00e9xico, las cadenas de suministro se reconfiguran y se esperan cuantiosas inversiones por el fen\u00f3meno del nearshoring.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pero nada es tan vol\u00e1til como una ola de buenas noticias. Mientras mejoran los resultados econ\u00f3micos rumbo al cierre de la actual administraci\u00f3n, la lista de retos para la pr\u00f3xima se hace m\u00e1s grande.<\/span><\/p>\n

En lo que va de este a\u00f1o, las expectativas econ\u00f3micas de los analistas para M\u00e9xico al cierre de 2023 han mejorado. Incluso, la Secretar\u00eda de Hacienda y Cr\u00e9dito P\u00fablico (SHCP) espera que crezca hasta 3%; pero, para 2024, el a\u00f1o en el que llegar\u00e1 la nueva administraci\u00f3n federal, los pron\u00f3sticos van de m\u00e1s a menos.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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La Encuesta Mensual de Expectativas del Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas (IMEF) pronosticaba en enero un crecimiento de 1.2% para 2023 y de 2% para 2024; para julio fueron modificadas a 2.4% y 1.8%, respectivamente.<\/span><\/div>\n
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\u201cLos datos de Estados Unidos salieron pr\u00e1cticamente al doble de lo esperado y eso reafirma la percepci\u00f3n de que no habr\u00e1 recesi\u00f3n, cuando menos, no en 2023. Se ha venido hablando de una recesi\u00f3n durante casi m\u00e1s de un a\u00f1o que no se ha materializado\u201d, indic\u00f3 a la prensa Gabriel Yorio, subsecretario de Hacienda, al presentar el informe de las finanzas y deuda p\u00fablicas del segundo trimestre.<\/span><\/p>\n

Desde septiembre del a\u00f1o pasado, la SHCP prev\u00e9 un crecimiento de 3% para la econom\u00eda mexicana. A mitad de a\u00f1o, considerando las inversiones que traiga el nearshoring, esperan que sea mayor que este pron\u00f3stico. Para 2024 prev\u00e9 tambi\u00e9n un 3%, pero en un rango menor (1.6-3.0%) al estimado para este a\u00f1o (2.2-3.0%).<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cEs altamente probable que el pr\u00f3ximo a\u00f1o sea complicado en t\u00e9rminos econ\u00f3micos, y no tanto por el tema electoral, sino porque se espera una desaceleraci\u00f3n en Estados Unidos y, probablemente, en M\u00e9xico. Entonces, el primer reto que va a encontrar la nueva administraci\u00f3n va a ser reactivar la econom\u00eda de esta posible desaceleraci\u00f3n del siguiente a\u00f1o, y esto apenas de entrada\u201d, considera Luis Gonzali, vicepresidente y director de Inversiones de Franklin Templenton.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ya de entrada, reactivar la econom\u00eda conlleva acciones de toda \u00edndole: financieras, educativas, fiscales, de seguridad, jur\u00eddicas y pol\u00edticas.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00bfY la inflaci\u00f3n?<\/span><\/h2>\n

\u201cDesafortunadamente, la inflaci\u00f3n va a seguir en niveles altos, ser\u00e1 hasta finales de 2024 que pueda alcanzar un nivel del 3.5%, lo cual todav\u00eda est\u00e1 fuera de la meta del Banco de M\u00e9xico, pero ah\u00ed no es tarea del nuevo gobierno, aqu\u00ed el reto est\u00e1 en respetar la autonom\u00eda del banco central\u201d, se\u00f1ala Gabriela Siller, directora de An\u00e1lisis Econ\u00f3mico de Grupo Financiero Base.<\/span><\/p>\n

Gonzali considera que la decisi\u00f3n del gobierno actual de mantener los subsidios a la gasolina ayud\u00f3 a controlar los incrementos de los precios del crudo en los \u00faltimos a\u00f1os, y que esta medida puede activarse en la siguiente administraci\u00f3n, cuando se vean picos en los precios del petr\u00f3leo.<\/span><\/p>\n

Siller anticipa mayor volatilidad el siguiente a\u00f1o para el tipo de cambio porque habr\u00e1 elecciones en M\u00e9xico y en Estados Unidos.<\/span><\/p>\n

Por su parte, Yorio refiere que el gobierno no tiene mecanismos para incidir en este, pues est\u00e1 determinado por oferta y demanda en los mercados.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cLo que ah\u00ed tiene que haber es un mensaje positivo, un mensaje de conciliaci\u00f3n con el sector privado y a favor del libre mercado para que el tipo de cambio no reaccione tan fuerte; es decir, que no haya ninguna sorpresa como en 2018, cuando se cancel\u00f3 la construcci\u00f3n del nuevo aeropuerto de la Ciudad de M\u00e9xico\u201d, advierte la economista de Grupo Financiero Base.<\/span><\/p>\n

Y para abarcar todas las ramas, Casillas agrega otras dos: \u201cQue el sector energ\u00e9tico funcione con l\u00f3gica de mercado\u201d, y el pendiente de varios sexenios, que es \u201cmejorar el Estado de derecho; si no arreglamos ambos temas, no vamos a ver sostenible el potencial de crecimiento econ\u00f3mico que tiene M\u00e9xico\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Tras la ca\u00edda econ\u00f3mica global por la pandemia, comienza la recuperaci\u00f3n acompa\u00f1ada de buenas noticias. 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