{"id":39680,"date":"2024-06-12T08:12:32","date_gmt":"2024-06-12T13:12:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/?p=39680"},"modified":"2024-06-12T08:12:32","modified_gmt":"2024-06-12T13:12:32","slug":"economia-global-en-aterrizaje-suave-con-eu-a-la-cabeza","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/2024\/06\/12\/economia-global-en-aterrizaje-suave-con-eu-a-la-cabeza\/","title":{"rendered":"Econom\u00eda global, en aterrizaje suave con EU a la cabeza"},"content":{"rendered":"

La previsi\u00f3n representa un desempe\u00f1o inferior al promedio que tra\u00eda la econom\u00eda antes de la pandemia, de 3.1% promedio.<\/span><\/p>\n

La econom\u00eda global registrar\u00e1 un crecimiento de 2.6% en su Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) de este a\u00f1o y del pr\u00f3ximo, estimaron economistas del Banco Mundial.<\/span><\/p>\n

Este desempe\u00f1o esperado incorpora una correcci\u00f3n al alza desde 2.4% que previeron en enero, con lo que se interrumpir\u00e1 la racha de dos a\u00f1os en desaceleraci\u00f3n, pero evidencia un estancamiento respecto del mismo nivel alcanzado por el PIB en el 2023.<\/span><\/p>\n

La previsi\u00f3n representa un desempe\u00f1o inferior al promedio que tra\u00eda la econom\u00eda del globo antes de la pandemia, de 3.1% promedio y significa que 80% de los pa\u00edses seguir\u00e1n creciendo a un ritmo m\u00e1s lento que en la pandemia.<\/span><\/p>\n

Cuatro a\u00f1os despu\u00e9s de los choques por la pandemia, los conflictos geopol\u00edticos, la inflaci\u00f3n y la restricci\u00f3n monetaria que contribuyeron a desacelerar a la econom\u00eda mundial, tendremos un crecimiento estable y encamin\u00e1ndose a lograr un aterrizaje suave\u201d, explicaron.<\/span><\/p>\n

Al actualizar el reporte semestral Global Economic Prospects, desagregaron al desempe\u00f1o de las econom\u00edas. As\u00ed, para las avanzadas proyectaron que registrar\u00e1n un crecimiento de 1.5% en este 2024 que aumentar\u00e1 a 1.7% para el pr\u00f3ximo a\u00f1o.<\/span><\/p>\n

Este desempe\u00f1o ser\u00e1 liderado por Estados Unidos que este a\u00f1o un crecer\u00e1 2.5%, que es nueve d\u00e9cimas mayor de lo anticipado en enero. Esta fortaleza, que ser\u00e1 similar al PIB del 2023, no ser\u00e1 sostenible para el pr\u00f3ximo a\u00f1o, cuando anticipan un avance de 1.8%, que implica una fuerte desaceleraci\u00f3n.<\/span><\/p>\n

En el an\u00e1lisis para EU, resaltaron que esta revisi\u00f3n al alza en el pron\u00f3stico resulta del sorprendente desempe\u00f1o de aquella econom\u00eda, particularmente en el lado del gasto de los consumidores.<\/span><\/p>\n

La desaceleraci\u00f3n esperada para el 2025 incorpora el efecto acumulado del ajuste monetario y la postura fiscal m\u00e1s restrictiva. Esperan tambi\u00e9n un debilitamiento del gasto de consumidores ante la moderaci\u00f3n de ingreso de los hogares y la visible disminuci\u00f3n de los ahorros.<\/span><\/p>\n

Panorama para la zona euro y Jap\u00f3n<\/span>
\nPara la zona euro anticipan un crecimiento de 0.7% que es inferior a 1.3% proyectado por ellos mismos en junio pasado y similar al previsto en enero. Este pron\u00f3stico supone una aceleraci\u00f3n desde 0.5% que crecieron las econom\u00edas del conglomerado el a\u00f1o pasado.<\/span><\/p>\n

Para Jap\u00f3n proyectaron un crecimiento de 0.7% para este a\u00f1o que es inferior a 0.9% proyectado en enero, tasa que se fortalecer\u00e1 hasta completar un avance de 1% en el 2025, que es mayor a 0.8% que proyectaron a inicio de a\u00f1o.<\/span><\/p>\n

Emergentes y BRIC<\/span>
\nLos expertos del BM avizoran que se afianzar\u00e1 el crecimiento econ\u00f3mico de muchas econom\u00edas emergentes en este a\u00f1o, sin embargo subrayaron que se mantendr\u00e1 por debajo de las tasas promedio prepand\u00e9micas. Para el promedio de ellos anticipan un crecimiento de 4% este a\u00f1o y el pr\u00f3ximo.<\/span><\/p>\n

Al hacer un acercamiento para al desempe\u00f1o esperado para el PIB del 2024 para los cuatro emergentes de mayor desarrollo, los BRIC, se observa que la econom\u00eda m\u00e1s din\u00e1mica ser\u00e1 India, con una expansi\u00f3n esperada de 6.6 por ciento que supera en dos d\u00e9cimas a 6.4% previsto en enero.<\/span><\/p>\n

El panorama para esta econom\u00eda incorpora una desaceleraci\u00f3n desde 8.2% que creci\u00f3 en el 2023. Para el pr\u00f3ximo a\u00f1o anticipan un avance de 6.7% en el PIB, mayor al 6.5% estimado hace cinco meses.<\/span><\/p>\n

Le sigue China, con un avance de 4.8% para este a\u00f1o que supera en tres d\u00e9cimas la previsi\u00f3n de enero y ser\u00e1 insostenible para el 2025, cuando ven un avance de 4.1% en el PIB. Esta tasa esperada es inferior en dos d\u00e9cimas de punto al anticipado en enero.<\/span><\/p>\n

Al fondo de los BRIC, est\u00e1n Brasil y Rusia con avances de 2 y 2.9% respectivamente para el 2024. Para el a\u00f1o pr\u00f3ximo anticipan una aceleraci\u00f3n para la econom\u00eda brasile\u00f1a, que llevar\u00e1 a su Producto a crecer en 2.2% mientras Rusia desacelera a 1.4 por ciento.<\/span><\/p>\n

Cabe se\u00f1alar que pese a ser protagonista de uno de los conflictos geopol\u00edticos de mayor impacto mundial y en medio de sanciones comerciales hist\u00f3ricas, Rusia s\u00f3lo experiment\u00f3 una recesi\u00f3n en el 2022, el a\u00f1o que inici\u00f3 la invasi\u00f3n a Ucrania. El a\u00f1o pasado, Rusia consigui\u00f3 un crecimiento de 3.6 por ciento.<\/span><\/p>\n

Guyana, caso aparte<\/span>
\nEl panorama esperado para Am\u00e9rica Latina por los economistas de Banco Mundial, es de un crecimiento de 1.8% en este a\u00f1o, que muestra una desaceleraci\u00f3n desde 2.2% que alcanz\u00f3 la regi\u00f3n en conjunto durante el 2023.<\/span><\/p>\n

La regi\u00f3n enfrentar\u00e1 dificultades econ\u00f3micas en el 2024, se espera que muestre una recuperaci\u00f3n gradual en 2025, apoyada por el descenso de la inflaci\u00f3n y una pol\u00edtica monetaria acomodaticia\u201d, dijo el banco en su informe.<\/span><\/p>\n

Entre los 28 pa\u00edses de la regi\u00f3n, la econom\u00eda m\u00e1s din\u00e1mica ser\u00e1 de nuevo Guyana, con una expansi\u00f3n de 34.3% que supera 33% del 2023. Economistas del BM han explicado que este dinamismo resulta del descubrimiento de yacimientos petroleros.<\/span><\/p>\n

En tanto, las dos econom\u00edas m\u00e1s grandes de la regi\u00f3n, Brasil y M\u00e9xico, conseguir\u00e1n un avance de 2 y 2.3% respectivamente este a\u00f1o.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

La previsi\u00f3n representa un desempe\u00f1o inferior al promedio que tra\u00eda la econom\u00eda antes de la pandemia, de 3.1% promedio. La […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":39681,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[2050],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-39680","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economia"],"yoast_head":"\nEconom\u00eda global, en aterrizaje suave con EU a la cabeza - Pol\u00edticos al Desnudo<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/2024\/06\/12\/economia-global-en-aterrizaje-suave-con-eu-a-la-cabeza\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Econom\u00eda global, en aterrizaje suave con EU a la cabeza - Pol\u00edticos al Desnudo\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"La previsi\u00f3n representa un desempe\u00f1o inferior al promedio que tra\u00eda la econom\u00eda antes de la pandemia, de 3.1% promedio. 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