{"id":40319,"date":"2024-06-21T07:49:06","date_gmt":"2024-06-21T12:49:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/?p=40319"},"modified":"2024-06-21T07:49:06","modified_gmt":"2024-06-21T12:49:06","slug":"hasta-agosto-un-nuevo-recorte-a-tasa-del-bdem-encuesta-citibanamex","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/2024\/06\/21\/hasta-agosto-un-nuevo-recorte-a-tasa-del-bdem-encuesta-citibanamex\/","title":{"rendered":"Hasta agosto, un nuevo recorte a tasa del BdeM: Encuesta Citibanamex"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">La incertidumbre entre diversos analistas del sector financiero sobre cu\u00e1ndo ser\u00e1 el pr\u00f3ximo recorte a la tasa de referencia por parte del Banco de M\u00e9xico (BdeM) se eleva, y ahora la mayor\u00eda anticipa este movimiento hasta el mes de agosto, revela la \u00faltima Encuesta Citibanamex de Expectativas.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">De acuerdo con la \u00faltima encuesta, realizada cada 15 d\u00edas a \u00e1reas de an\u00e1lisis de bancos, casas de bolsa, consultoras, entre otras entidades, 22 de los participantes proyectan el siguiente movimiento para agosto, 9 lo anticipan en junio y 3 esperan que se d\u00e9 entre el \u00faltimo trimestre de este a\u00f1o o el primero del pr\u00f3ximo.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Hace quince d\u00edas, 26 expertos esperaban que el movimiento se diera en junio y 11 lo pronosticaban en agosto.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Lo que se mantuvo sin cambios es que se anticipa que el pr\u00f3ximo recorte a la tasa de referencia \u2013el instrumento que marca el costo al que se financian empresas y familias\u2014sea de un cuarto de punto porcentual o 25 puntos base.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">El banco central mantiene la tasa de inter\u00e9s en su segundo nivel m\u00e1s alto desde que la junta de gobierno tiene como objetivo controlar la inflaci\u00f3n por medio de la pol\u00edtica monetaria y se ubica en 11 por ciento, el m\u00e1s elevado fue de 11.25 por ciento.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Derivado de la incertidumbre, los economistas consultados por Citibanamex ahora estiman, en promedio, que, al concluir el a\u00f1o, el objetivo se ubique en un nivel de 10.25 por ciento, mientras que una quincena atr\u00e1s, la estimaci\u00f3n era de 10 por ciento.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Lo anterior implicar\u00eda un solo recorte de tres cuartos de punto porcentual, tres de un cuarto de punto porcentual, o uno de medio punto con otro de medio punto.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Pese a lo anterior, las estimaciones para la inflaci\u00f3n disminuyeron de 4.3 a 4.27 por ciento.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Otro rubro que tuvo una marginal disminuci\u00f3n fueron las proyecciones de crecimiento, pues la de 2024 baj\u00f3 de 2.2 a 2.1 por ciento, mientras que la de 2025 pas\u00f3 de 1.8 a 1.7 por ciento.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Para el tipo de cambio, las proyecciones incrementaron, pues hace quince d\u00edas se pronosticaba que terminar\u00e1 el a\u00f1o en un nivel de 18 unidades por billete verde y ahora se estima en 18.70 pesos por d\u00f3lar.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>La incertidumbre entre diversos analistas del sector financiero sobre cu\u00e1ndo ser\u00e1 el pr\u00f3ximo recorte a la tasa de referencia por 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