{"id":40580,"date":"2024-06-25T08:15:38","date_gmt":"2024-06-25T13:15:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/?p=40580"},"modified":"2024-06-25T08:15:38","modified_gmt":"2024-06-25T13:15:38","slug":"guerrero-aun-resiente-los-efectos-del-huracan-otis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/2024\/06\/25\/guerrero-aun-resiente-los-efectos-del-huracan-otis\/","title":{"rendered":"Guerrero a\u00fan resiente los efectos del hurac\u00e1n Otis"},"content":{"rendered":"

Durante el primer cuatrimestre del a\u00f1o, las econom\u00edas m\u00e1s grandes del pa\u00eds presentaron disminuciones en el consumo de los hogares.<\/span><\/p>\n

El comercio minorista, principal indicador del consumo privado, dio algunas sorpresas en los primeros cuatro meses del 2024: Guerrero a\u00fan resiente los efectos del hurac\u00e1n Otis y las econom\u00edas m\u00e1s grandes del pa\u00eds registraron ca\u00eddas en este indicador.<\/span><\/p>\n

Durante el primer cuatrimestre del presente a\u00f1o, los ingresos de los establecimientos al por menor crecieron en 24 de las 32 entidades del pa\u00eds, de acuerdo con datos del Instituto Nacional de Estad\u00edstica y Geograf\u00eda (Inegi).<\/span><\/p>\n

Del lado negativo, Guerrero present\u00f3 la disminuci\u00f3n m\u00e1s pronunciada de las ventas minoristas, de 17.0% a tasa anual, el peor resultado que se tiene registrado en igual periodo de comparaci\u00f3n.<\/span><\/p>\n

Es decir, la contracci\u00f3n del consumo en Guerrero derivada de Otis, a m\u00e1s de 220 d\u00edas de su impacto, fue m\u00e1s grave que los efectos de la pandemia del Covid-19 en el 2020 y la crisis econ\u00f3mica y financiera de los a\u00f1os 2008-2009.<\/span><\/p>\n

Adem\u00e1s, entre los estados con retroceso en su comercio minorista, destacan las bajas anuales de Ciudad de M\u00e9xico (0.3%) y Estado de M\u00e9xico (2.4%), que al ser las econom\u00edas que m\u00e1s aportan a la actividad econ\u00f3mica del territorio nacional, resienten con mayor magnitud el repunte de la inflaci\u00f3n y la a\u00fan elevada tasa de inter\u00e9s (11.00 por ciento).<\/span><\/p>\n

Lo anterior significa que las entidades, que en conjunto aportan una cuarta parte del Producto Interno Bruto del pa\u00eds, reciben con m\u00e1s impacto la p\u00e9rdida del poder adquisitivo de los hogares.<\/span><\/p>\n

Al otro extremo, los estados con los mayores amentos del comercio al por menor en el primer cuatrimestre del a\u00f1o en curso fueron Hidalgo (5.6% anual), Aguascalientes (4.2%), Zacatecas (4.1%) y Quer\u00e9taro (3.8%), mostrando una mejor din\u00e1mica del consumo por su estructura econ\u00f3mica y laboral.<\/span><\/p>\n

Para Ve por M\u00e1s (BX+), el indicador del comercio minorista consigui\u00f3 crecer gracias a que el desempleo volvi\u00f3 a bajar a su m\u00ednimo hist\u00f3rico en abril y a que las remesas en pesos finalmente mostraron un desempe\u00f1o positivo (+3.2% anual).<\/span><\/p>\n

Esto, a\u00f1adi\u00f3, opac\u00f3 la aceleraci\u00f3n en la inflaci\u00f3n al consumidor que pas\u00f3 a 4.65% anual, su mayor variaci\u00f3n en tres meses, y que la confianza de los consumidores se mantuvo en el mismo nivel que un mes antes.<\/span><\/p>\n

En lo que resta del primer semestre, el grupo financiero prev\u00e9 que el desempleo se mantendr\u00e1 bajo, los salarios seguir\u00e1n creciendo, y se adelantar\u00e1n ciertos programas (t\u00edpico en cada a\u00f1o electoral), lo que le seguir\u00e1 dando soporte al consumo.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cNo obstante, en el segundo semestre perder\u00e1 tracci\u00f3n, si se observa una desaceleraci\u00f3n en la creaci\u00f3n de empleo y menor confianza. Adem\u00e1s, aunque proyectamos que disminuir\u00e1n un poco tanto la inflaci\u00f3n como las tasas de inter\u00e9s permanecer\u00e1n elevadas, erosionando el poder adquisitivo y restringiendo el cr\u00e9dito, respectivamente. Por otro lado, el gasto social tambi\u00e9n se desacelerar\u00e1\u201d, expone BX+.<\/span><\/p>\n

Avance positivo<\/span>
\nMientras Monex se\u00f1ala que las ventas minoristas exhibieron un resiliente desempe\u00f1o, reflejando un ligero optimismo en el consumo, y mayor confianza de los consumidores.<\/span><\/p>\n

En perspectiva general, espera que las ventas minoristas contin\u00faen con un avance positivo en los pr\u00f3ximos meses.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Durante el primer cuatrimestre del a\u00f1o, las econom\u00edas m\u00e1s grandes del pa\u00eds presentaron disminuciones en el consumo de los hogares. 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