{"id":40723,"date":"2024-06-27T08:08:45","date_gmt":"2024-06-27T13:08:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/?p=40723"},"modified":"2024-06-27T08:08:45","modified_gmt":"2024-06-27T13:08:45","slug":"sinaloa-registra-un-nivel-de-deuda-sostenible","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/2024\/06\/27\/sinaloa-registra-un-nivel-de-deuda-sostenible\/","title":{"rendered":"Sinaloa registra un nivel de deuda sostenible"},"content":{"rendered":"

Los factores que influyen son las inversiones locales e internacionales y la alta disponibilidad de energ\u00eda el\u00e9ctrica en el estado.<\/span><\/p>\n

S&P Global Ratings confirm\u00f3 la calificaci\u00f3n de \u201cmxA\u201d del estado de Sinaloa; la perspectiva se mantiene Estable.<\/span><\/p>\n

De acuerdo con un reporte enviado a la Bolsa Mexicana de Valores, la confirmaci\u00f3n de la calificaci\u00f3n considera las pol\u00edticas financieras prudentes que faciliten resultados fiscales relativamente balanceados y un nivel de deuda sostenible. Asimismo, incorpora un desempe\u00f1o presupuestal d\u00e9bil que incorpora la alta dependencia de las transferencias federales y las presiones relacionadas con sus pagos por pensiones.<\/span><\/p>\n

Por otro lado, su posici\u00f3n de liquidez d\u00e9bil, el uso de financiamiento de corto plazo y perspectivas de crecimiento econ\u00f3mico en l\u00ednea con el soberano, a pesar de la expectativa de nuevas inversiones en el estado, restringen la calificaci\u00f3n.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sinaloa ha logrado atraer inversiones locales e internacionales gracias a las importantes obras de infraestructura que ha realizado durante los \u00faltimos a\u00f1os y a la alta disponibilidad de energ\u00eda el\u00e9ctrica en el estado. La mayor\u00eda de estas inversiones se concentran en los sectores energ\u00e9tico, automotor y aeroespacial. Asimismo, la competitividad del estado ha mejorado, como resultado del dinamismo en el mercado laboral e inversiones en gas natural e infraestructura.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cDicho lo anterior, Sinaloa creci\u00f3 0.8% en el 2023, por debajo del promedio nacional, dado que el sector primario, que representa 12.8% del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) estatal, se vio afectado por la disminuci\u00f3n en los precios internacionales de granos, especialmente en el ma\u00edz. En los pr\u00f3ximos dos a\u00f1os esperamos que Sinaloa registre una tasa de crecimiento similar al promedio nacional, como resultado de un mayor n\u00famero de inversiones y la recuperaci\u00f3n del sector primario. Estimamos que el PIB per c\u00e1pita de Sinaloa se ubic\u00f3 en 12,657 d\u00f3lares en el 2023, por debajo del promedio nacional de 13,484 d\u00f3lares\u201d, estima la calificadora.<\/span><\/p>\n

Con la intenci\u00f3n de asegurar estabilidad financiera de los peque\u00f1os productores, el gobierno de Sinaloa y el gobierno federal dise\u00f1aron programas de compra por encima de precios de mercado. El costo del programa en el 2023-2024 fue por un total de 4,100 millones de pesos, equivalente a 6.2% del gasto operativo en el 2023, que el estado financi\u00f3 con deuda de corto plazo por un monto aproximado de 5,500 millones de pesos.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nivel de deuda sostenible<\/span>
\nA marzo de 2024, la deuda total del estado se ubic\u00f3 en torno a 7,025 millones de pesos. La deuda de largo plazo representa 3,330 millones de pesos y se encuentra en un fideicomiso de fuente de pago que cuenta con la afectaci\u00f3n de 25.34% del Fondo General de Participaciones (FGP) que le corresponde al estado. La deuda de corto plazo se ubic\u00f3 en torno a 3,695 millones de pesos, cuyo vencimiento fue en mayo del 2024.<\/span><\/p>\n

Adicionalmente, en mayo del 2024, el estado contrat\u00f3 2,925 millones de pesos adicionales en financiamiento de corto plazo, con vigencia en mayo del 2025. Esperamos que este pago presione el servicio de deuda del 2025, pero que regrese la deuda total a 3.2% como porcentaje de los ingresos operativos, y que el pago por intereses se ubique en torno a 0.4%, ambos hacia el 2026.<\/span><\/p>\n

Balances Proyectados<\/span>
\nLa firma estima que el estado mantenga super\u00e1vits operativos en torno al 4.6% de sus ingresos operativos durante el 2024-2026, menores al promedio de los \u00faltimos tres a\u00f1os, as\u00ed como peque\u00f1os super\u00e1vits despu\u00e9s de gastos de inversi\u00f3n.<\/span><\/p>\n

Se espera que Sinaloa mantenga los esfuerzos de fiscalizaci\u00f3n tributaria y digitalizaci\u00f3n, a trav\u00e9s del Servicio de Administraci\u00f3n Tributaria del Estado de Sinaloa (SATES). Sin embargo, el estado podr\u00eda afrontar presiones presupuestales de n\u00f3mina, subsidios y de gasto en seguridad p\u00fablica. Dada una menor capacidad para generar ahorros de recursos propios y sin planes de financiamiento de largo plazo, el gasto de capital se mantendr\u00eda relativamente bajo, alrededor de 4.0% del gasto total durante el 2024-2026, por debajo del promedio de 5.3% observado entre el 2019 y el 2023.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cEstimamos que el efectivo de libre disposici\u00f3n del estado, m\u00e1s el flujo de efectivo de las actividades operativas y el acceso a l\u00edneas de cr\u00e9dito revolventes de corto plazo se ubique en torno al 60% de su servicio de deuda proyectado para los siguientes 12 meses. El estado ha utilizado regularmente l\u00edneas de cr\u00e9dito. Consideramos que el acceso del estado a la liquidez externa, particularmente a cr\u00e9ditos bancarios, seguir\u00e1 siendo satisfactorio\u201d, agrega la firma.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Los factores que influyen son las inversiones locales e internacionales y la alta disponibilidad de energ\u00eda el\u00e9ctrica en el estado. 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