{"id":41151,"date":"2024-07-03T08:14:43","date_gmt":"2024-07-03T13:14:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/?p=41151"},"modified":"2024-07-03T08:14:43","modified_gmt":"2024-07-03T13:14:43","slug":"plan-de-consolidacion-fiscal-factor-para-nota-de-mexico","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/2024\/07\/03\/plan-de-consolidacion-fiscal-factor-para-nota-de-mexico\/","title":{"rendered":"Plan de consolidaci\u00f3n fiscal, factor para nota de M\u00e9xico"},"content":{"rendered":"

El Paquete Econ\u00f3mico 2025 ayudar\u00e1 a esclarecer las dudas al respecto, tras la expansi\u00f3n del d\u00e9ficit que se present\u00f3 este a\u00f1o; no habr\u00e1 penalizaci\u00f3n sobre el no cumplimiento de metas.<\/span><\/p>\n

Los retos que enfrentar\u00e1 M\u00e9xico en la agencia Fitch, para mantener sin cambio la nota soberana, en \u201cBBB-\u201d con perspectiva \u201cEstable\u201d son: el impacto de las reformas constitucionales en la institucionalidad, una ruta cre\u00edble de consolidaci\u00f3n fiscal, evitar un aumento acelerado de la deuda y el aprovechamiento de la oportunidad que representa el nearshoring.<\/span><\/p>\n

As\u00ed lo explic\u00f3 el director de an\u00e1lisis soberano para Am\u00e9rica Latina en Fitch, Carlos Morales.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cLa calificaci\u00f3n vigente de M\u00e9xico es grado de inversi\u00f3n \u201cBBB-\u201d con perspectiva Estable, una nota que se revisa cada seis meses y cuya observaci\u00f3n m\u00e1s pr\u00f3xima est\u00e1 por presentarse. El Paquete Econ\u00f3mico 2025 que conoceremos en el \u00faltimo trimestre del a\u00f1o nos ayudar\u00e1 a esclarecer nuestras dudas sobre c\u00f3mo se dar\u00e1 la consolidaci\u00f3n fiscal tras la expansi\u00f3n del d\u00e9ficit que se present\u00f3 este a\u00f1o\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

Como se recordar\u00e1, el Congreso mexicano aprob\u00f3 un incremento del d\u00e9ficit fiscal de 5.4% del PIB para este a\u00f1o, que se elevar\u00e1 a 5.9% al incluir los Requerimientos Financieros del Sector P\u00fablico (RFSP), que es el nivel m\u00e1s amplio desde 1988. Y la Secretar\u00eda de Hacienda considera que la pr\u00f3xima administraci\u00f3n har\u00e1 todo lo posible para corregir este d\u00e9ficit y llevarlo a 3% del PIB en el primer a\u00f1o del gobierno entrante.<\/span><\/p>\n

Desde sus oficinas en Wall Street, el analista soberano de Fitch confi\u00f3 que al conocerse el Paquete Econ\u00f3mico del nuevo gobierno, se reducir\u00e1 la incertidumbre sobre la estrategia que aplicar\u00e1 para reducir este d\u00e9ficit hist\u00f3rico y mantener la trayectoria de deuda estable.<\/span><\/p>\n

Carlos Morales descart\u00f3 que una acci\u00f3n de calificaci\u00f3n sobre el soberano mexicano est\u00e9 sujeta al cumplimiento de alg\u00fan objetivo puntual en la consolidaci\u00f3n fiscal.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cNo se penalizar\u00e1 el no cumplimiento de ninguna meta planteada. Lo que evaluar\u00e1 el equipo de calificaciones es la credibilidad de una estrategia clara para reducir el d\u00e9ficit fiscal y para ponerlo en una trayectoria estable de deuda, lo que evitar\u00e1 que entre en una trayectoria ascendente\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pemex s\u00ed es factor de riesgo soberano<\/span><\/p>\n

Morales advirti\u00f3 que la calificaci\u00f3n actual de M\u00e9xico contempla el escenario de un gobierno federal que sigue apoyando financieramente a Petr\u00f3leos Mexicanos (Pemex).<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cEl gobierno entrante continuar\u00e1 apoyando a Pemex en detrimento de sus finanzas p\u00fablicas. No esperamos cambios significativos\u201d, se\u00f1al\u00f3.<\/span><\/p>\n

En Fitch estiman que la deuda de M\u00e9xico terminar\u00e1 este a\u00f1o representando cerca de 48% del PIB, una m\u00e9trica que incluye la deuda general del gobierno federal as\u00ed como la de los estados y municipios pero que no contempla las obligaciones de Petr\u00f3leos Mexicanos (Pemex), ni de la Comisi\u00f3n Federal de Electricidad (CFE).<\/span><\/p>\n

El analista consign\u00f3 que pese al incremento en el endeudamiento observado este a\u00f1o, la actual administraci\u00f3n mantuvo una pol\u00edtica fiscal \u201cun tanto restrictiva\u201d el resto de la gesti\u00f3n, lo que la mantiene incluso debajo de la mediana que tienen los dem\u00e1s pa\u00edses pares de calificaci\u00f3n.<\/span><\/p>\n

La deuda media de los pa\u00edses que coinciden en el mismo escal\u00f3n de calificaci\u00f3n de M\u00e9xico es equivalente a 55% del PIB, agreg\u00f3.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cLa deuda por tanto no es un factor de riesgo para la calificaci\u00f3n de M\u00e9xico. Ser\u00eda m\u00e1s, en todo caso, la perspectiva de que continuar\u00e1 la aceleraci\u00f3n del endeudamiento, pero nuevamente, tendremos los detalles del manejo de la Hacienda, una vez que presenten el paquete econ\u00f3mico del 2025\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

Institucionalidad, el valor m\u00e1s bajo<\/span><\/p>\n

El director de An\u00e1lisis Soberano para Am\u00e9rica Latina en Fitch detall\u00f3 que una parte de la calificaci\u00f3n soberana, \u201cprobablemente 20%\u201d est\u00e1 vinculada a los indicadores de gobernanza del pa\u00eds. Este valor es asumido a partir de los indicadores de gobernabilidad que mide el Banco Mundial para todos los pa\u00edses.<\/span><\/p>\n

Es en este factor donde se ver\u00eda reflejado el impacto de un cambio constitucional como el de la reforma al poder Judicial que ahora est\u00e1 en an\u00e1lisis, subray\u00f3.<\/span><\/p>\n

Advirti\u00f3 que M\u00e9xico tiene uno de los niveles m\u00e1s bajos de institucionalidad en el citado indicador y por tanto ya estar\u00eda incorporado un cambio de este tipo en la proporci\u00f3n que otorgan a este valor en la calificaci\u00f3n soberana.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tendremos que esperar a la aprobaci\u00f3n de la reforma (al poder Judicial), para conocer la gradualidad o marginalidad de los cambios, para identificar que tan sustancial ser\u00e1 y qu\u00e9 tanta diferencia har\u00e1 respecto de lo que ahora tienen. Una perspectiva bastante negativa que ya tiene la institucionalidad del soberano\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nearshoring, crecimiento y recaudaci\u00f3n<\/span><\/p>\n

El analista soberano precis\u00f3 que la relocalizaci\u00f3n de cadenas de suministro, el llamado nearshoring, es una oportunidad positiva para incrementar la capacidad de crecimiento de la econom\u00eda mexicana.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cEl nearshoring puede fortalecer la capacidad econ\u00f3mica de mediano y largo plazos de M\u00e9xico, esto para un lapso de tres a cinco a\u00f1os (\u2026) de completarse tendr\u00e1 un efecto positivo en las finanzas p\u00fablicas porque con un mayor crecimiento se fortalecer\u00e1 la disponibilidad de recursos para recaudar\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

El Paquete Econ\u00f3mico 2025 ayudar\u00e1 a esclarecer las dudas al respecto, tras la expansi\u00f3n del d\u00e9ficit que se present\u00f3 este […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":41152,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[2050],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-41151","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economia"],"yoast_head":"\nPlan de consolidaci\u00f3n fiscal, factor para nota de M\u00e9xico - 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