{"id":41430,"date":"2024-07-07T01:24:02","date_gmt":"2024-07-07T06:24:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/?p=41430"},"modified":"2024-07-07T01:24:02","modified_gmt":"2024-07-07T06:24:02","slug":"economia-mexicana-evitaria-recesion-enfriamiento-seria-temporal-especialistas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/2024\/07\/07\/economia-mexicana-evitaria-recesion-enfriamiento-seria-temporal-especialistas\/","title":{"rendered":"Econom\u00eda mexicana evitar\u00eda recesi\u00f3n; enfriamiento ser\u00eda temporal: especialistas"},"content":{"rendered":"

A\u00fan enfrenta riesgos, como el cambio de gobierno que suele frenar la inversi\u00f3n p\u00fablica; existe incertidumbre por reformas.<\/span><\/p>\n

La econom\u00eda mexicana lograr\u00eda evitar una recesi\u00f3n este a\u00f1o, mientras que el enfriamiento mostrado en los primeros meses ser\u00eda algo temporal, de acuerdo con la interpretaci\u00f3n de analistas respecto al Sistema de Indicadores C\u00edclicos, elaborado por el Instituto Nacional de Estad\u00edstica y Geograf\u00eda (Inegi).<\/span><\/p>\n

En abril, el indicador Coincidente \u2013que refleja el estado general de la econom\u00eda\u2013 mostr\u00f3 una disminuci\u00f3n de 0.06 puntos mensuales, su novena ca\u00edda al hilo, pero se mantuvo por arriba de su tendencia de largo plazo con un nivel de 100.1 puntos.<\/span><\/p>\n

James Salazar, subdirector de An\u00e1lisis Econ\u00f3mico de CIBanco, explic\u00f3 que este indicador est\u00e1 reflejando parte del enfriamiento observado en el primer tercio del a\u00f1o; sin embargo, que se mantenga por arriba de su tendencia de largo plazo puede dar una se\u00f1al de que la desaceleraci\u00f3n es moment\u00e1nea.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cA trav\u00e9s del Coincidente podemos ver un proceso de desaceleraci\u00f3n de la econom\u00eda mexicana pero, por su nivel y en conjunto con el Indicador Adelantado, parecer\u00eda ser ef\u00edmera o de corta duraci\u00f3n\u201d, agreg\u00f3.<\/span><\/p>\n

En tanto, para mayo el Indicador Adelantado \u2013que busca exponer los puntos de giro del Coincidente\u2013 habr\u00eda crecido 0.07 puntos mensuales, ubic\u00e1ndose tambi\u00e9n por arriba de su tendencia de largo plazo, con 100.7 puntos.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cLa combinaci\u00f3n del indicador coincidente por encima de la tendencia de largo plazo (brecha positiva) y el crecimiento del indicador adelantado durante siete meses consecutivos, se\u00f1ala que es probable que en los pr\u00f3ximos meses el indicador coincidente evite caer en una brecha negativa. Por lo anterior, de acuerdo con la metodolog\u00eda de los indicadores coincidentes la econom\u00eda mexicana, no cambiar\u00eda su fase del ciclo econ\u00f3mico en los siguientes meses, es decir, evitar\u00eda caer en recesi\u00f3n\u201d, indic\u00f3 Gabriela Siller, directora de An\u00e1lisis Econ\u00f3mico y Financiero de Banco Base.<\/span><\/p>\n

Los riesgos para la econom\u00eda<\/span>
\nPara este a\u00f1o, el \u00faltimo del gobierno de Andr\u00e9s Manuel L\u00f3pez Obrador, la Secretar\u00eda de Hacienda y Cr\u00e9dito P\u00fablico (SHCP) prev\u00e9 que la econom\u00eda crezca alrededor de 3%, impulsada, principalmente, por el consumo interno; sin embargo, esta cifra se ha considerado como bastante optimista dado que las estimaciones de analistas e instituciones apuntan alrededor de 2 por ciento.<\/span><\/p>\n

En este sentido, James Salazar indic\u00f3 que si bien los Indicadores C\u00edclicos podr\u00edan descartar la recesi\u00f3n, la econom\u00eda mexicana a\u00fan enfrenta riesgos, como el cambio de gobierno que, usualmente, frena la inversi\u00f3n p\u00fablica en proyectos y, en general, el gasto.<\/span><\/p>\n

Asimismo, mencion\u00f3 la incertidumbre y nerviosismo entorno a las reformas que se buscan aprobar en la siguiente legislatura, sobre todo la que tiene que ver con el Poder Judicial, as\u00ed como el Paquete Econ\u00f3mico 2025 que, dependiendo lo planteado, podr\u00eda afectar la calificaci\u00f3n crediticia del pa\u00eds.<\/span><\/p>\n

Para el siguiente a\u00f1o, una de las grandes inc\u00f3gnitas es c\u00f3mo se llevar\u00e1 a cabo la consolidaci\u00f3n fiscal dado que, para este 2024, se espera que el d\u00e9ficit incremente a 5.9% del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB).<\/span><\/p>\n

En este sentido, Claudia Sheinbaum, virtual presidenta electa de M\u00e9xico, ha mencionado que se ha reunido con Rogelio Ram\u00edrez de la O, titular de Hacienda que repetir\u00e1 el cargo en su gobierno, para lograr bajar dicho d\u00e9ficit a 3.5% del PIB.<\/span><\/p>\n

Puede haber contracci\u00f3n en alg\u00fan punto<\/span>
\nPIB crecer\u00e1 0.8% en el 2025: Banco Base<\/span>
\nLa econom\u00eda mexicana registrar\u00e1 un crecimiento de 0.8% y no se descarta la posibilidad de una recesi\u00f3n, advirti\u00f3 la directora de an\u00e1lisis econ\u00f3mico y financiero de Banco Base, Gabriela Siller.<\/span><\/p>\n

Son cuatro los factores que alimentan este escenario: la estrategia de consolidaci\u00f3n fiscal que seguir\u00e1 el nuevo gobierno para evitar recortes de calificaci\u00f3n crediticia; la posibilidad de una contracci\u00f3n en la inversi\u00f3n fija, impactada por la alta base de comparaci\u00f3n de este a\u00f1o; la cautela por las reformas constitucionales y la persistencia de la restricci\u00f3n monetaria ante una inflaci\u00f3n que no cede.<\/span><\/p>\n

Considera que el consumo es otro factor de riesgo, pues en los \u00faltimos tres a\u00f1os estuvo alentado por la llegada de remesas y el cr\u00e9dito. Pero las transferencias de d\u00f3lares por parte de los trabajadores mexicanos han comenzado a mostrar signos de moderaci\u00f3n y las tasas altas est\u00e1n impactando en la cartera vencida.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sostuvo que un crecimiento de 0.8% como el que anticipan para el PIB del 2025, incorpora la posibilidad de una contracci\u00f3n en alg\u00fan trimestre del pr\u00f3ximo a\u00f1o y abre la puerta a que M\u00e9xico pueda presentar una recesi\u00f3n el pr\u00f3ximo a\u00f1o.<\/span><\/p>\n

El nearshoring puede hacer un contrapeso para el deterioro del ambiente que espera para el 2025.<\/span><\/p>\n

Matiz\u00f3 que no se est\u00e1 aprovechando esta oportunidad que ofrece el giro en el comercio mundial, pues no se est\u00e1 haciendo promoci\u00f3n internacional para que vengan a M\u00e9xico.<\/span><\/p>\n

Resalt\u00f3 que tampoco se est\u00e1 modernizando la infraestructura carretera, ni se est\u00e1 mejorando la red de distribuci\u00f3n de agua y energ\u00eda el\u00e9ctrica, ni se est\u00e1 otorgando certidumbre sobre el manejo de la pol\u00edtica econ\u00f3mica interna.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cCreo que la aprobaci\u00f3n de las reformas constitucionales como la desaparici\u00f3n de los \u00f3rganos aut\u00f3nomos y la reforma al Poder Judicial pueden terminar por darle carpetazo y esfumar la oportunidad del nearshoring para M\u00e9xico\u201d. (Con informaci\u00f3n de Yolanda Morales)<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A\u00fan enfrenta riesgos, como el cambio de gobierno que suele frenar la inversi\u00f3n p\u00fablica; existe incertidumbre por reformas. La econom\u00eda […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":41431,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[2050],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-41430","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economia"],"yoast_head":"\nEconom\u00eda mexicana evitar\u00eda recesi\u00f3n; enfriamiento ser\u00eda temporal: especialistas - Pol\u00edticos al Desnudo<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/2024\/07\/07\/economia-mexicana-evitaria-recesion-enfriamiento-seria-temporal-especialistas\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Econom\u00eda mexicana evitar\u00eda recesi\u00f3n; enfriamiento ser\u00eda temporal: especialistas - Pol\u00edticos al Desnudo\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A\u00fan enfrenta riesgos, como el cambio de gobierno que suele frenar la inversi\u00f3n p\u00fablica; existe incertidumbre por reformas. 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