{"id":42274,"date":"2024-07-19T08:33:58","date_gmt":"2024-07-19T13:33:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/?p=42274"},"modified":"2024-07-19T08:33:58","modified_gmt":"2024-07-19T13:33:58","slug":"deuda-soberana-de-mexico-por-encima-del-grado-de-inversion-fitch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/2024\/07\/19\/deuda-soberana-de-mexico-por-encima-del-grado-de-inversion-fitch\/","title":{"rendered":"Deuda soberana de M\u00e9xico, por encima del grado de inversi\u00f3n: Fitch"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><em>Fitch\u00a0<\/em>ratific\u00f3 la calificaci\u00f3n de la deuda soberana de largo plazo de M\u00e9xico en BBB-, por encima del grado de inversi\u00f3n. Con ello siete agencias calificadoras han mantenido la calificaci\u00f3n crediticia de M\u00e9xico este a\u00f1o, con una perspectiva estable para el pa\u00eds. Si bien la firma destac\u00f3 la prudencia de las pol\u00edticas macroecon\u00f3micas, advirti\u00f3 que las elecciones de Estados Unidos, los apoyos continuos a Petr\u00f3leos Mexicanos (Pemex) y las reformas constitucionales en discusi\u00f3n son un riesgo.<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"teads-inread\">\n<div>\n<div id=\"teads0\" class=\"teads-player\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">\u201cLa calificaci\u00f3n de M\u00e9xico se sustenta en un marco de pol\u00edtica macroecon\u00f3mica prudente, finanzas externas estables y robustas y una relaci\u00f3n deuda p\u00fablica\/PIB que Fitch proyecta que se mantendr\u00e1 por debajo de la mediana &#8216;BBB&#8217;. La calificaci\u00f3n est\u00e1 limitada por indicadores de gobernanza d\u00e9biles, un historial de crecimiento moderado a largo plazo y riesgos fiscales relacionados con pasivos contingentes de Pemex y rigideces presupuestarias crecientes\u201d resumi\u00f3 Fitch en su an\u00e1lisis.<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">La firma de riesgo destac\u00f3 que Claudia Sheinbaum gan\u00f3 las elecciones presidenciales del 2 de junio de 2024 con 59 por ciento de los votos, m\u00e1s del 30 por ciento por encima de su competidor m\u00e1s cercano, X\u00f3chitl G\u00e1lvez, lo que deriv\u00f3 en el mayor margen de victoria en una elecci\u00f3n presidencial mexicana desde 1982. Este resultado en las urnas \u201csolidifica el amplio apoyo pol\u00edtico de Morena\u201d, el cual, con sus aliados, puede obtener suficiente apoyo legislativo para aprobar las reformas constitucionales que el presidente Andr\u00e9s Manuel L\u00f3pez Obrador envi\u00f3 al Congreso en febrero pasado.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Fitch consider\u00f3 que entre esas iniciativas, la que tendr\u00e1 un mayor relevancia ser\u00e1 la judicial, que promueve la elecci\u00f3n de juzgadores a trav\u00e9s del voto popular. De acuerdo con la firma de riesgo, esta reforma puede afectar \u201cnegativamente el perfil institucional de M\u00e9xico\u201d, sobre todo porque la gobernanza del pa\u00eds \u201cya es relativamente d\u00e9bil\u201d, con una valuaci\u00f3n de 32 por ciento, por debajo del promedio de 58 por ciento que tienen otros pa\u00edses calificados con BBB. Sin embargo, la firma consider\u00f3 que \u201ces demasiado pronto para medir la gravedad potencial (de la propuesta) antes de la aprobaci\u00f3n y la implementaci\u00f3n\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">En temas meramente econ\u00f3micos, la firma de riesgo calcula que el d\u00e9ficit fiscal pase de 5.4 por ciento del PIB en 2024 a 4 por ciento en 2025, debido a que la pr\u00f3xima administraci\u00f3n heredar\u00e1 un incremento en el gasto social y los mayores costos de endeudamiento, pese a que se ha hablado de mantener una trayectoria estable de deuda sobre PIB. La firma calcula que la deuda p\u00fablica aumentar\u00e1 a 52.8 por ciento del PIB en 2026, luego de cerrar el 2024 en 49 por ciento. Sin embargo, se mantendr\u00e1 muy por debajo del 55 por ciento en que se encuentran en promedio los pa\u00edses calificados con BBB.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">La firma de riesgo espera que contin\u00fae el apoyo financieramente a Pemex durante la administraci\u00f3n de Sheinbaum, luego de que en el gobierno de Andr\u00e9s Manuel L\u00f3pez Obrador ha alcanzado aproximadamente el 4 por ciento del PIB entre 2019 y 2023. \u201cEsto probablemente requerir\u00e1 transferencias federales continuas a menos que haya una mejora significativa en la eficiencia operativa de la compa\u00f1\u00eda o una reducci\u00f3n en su carga de deuda\u201d, explic\u00f3 la firma de riesgo<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Fitch\u00a0ratific\u00f3 la calificaci\u00f3n de la deuda soberana de largo plazo de M\u00e9xico en BBB-, por encima del grado de inversi\u00f3n. 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