{"id":43734,"date":"2024-08-09T08:34:43","date_gmt":"2024-08-09T13:34:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/?p=43734"},"modified":"2024-08-09T08:34:43","modified_gmt":"2024-08-09T13:34:43","slug":"arranca-ciclo-de-recortes-en-la-tasa-de-referencia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/2024\/08\/09\/arranca-ciclo-de-recortes-en-la-tasa-de-referencia\/","title":{"rendered":"Arranca ciclo de recortes en la tasa de referencia"},"content":{"rendered":"

Entre los economistas consultados no hay consenso sobre cu\u00e1nto recortar\u00e1 Banco de M\u00e9xico la tasa para lo que resta del a\u00f1o.<\/span><\/p>\n

El comunicado de la decisi\u00f3n monetaria de Banco de M\u00e9xico apunta que ya inici\u00f3 un ciclo de recortes en la tasa, coincidieron analistas de Barclays, BNP Parib\u00e1s, Pantheon Macroeconomics, Goldman Sachs y el banco de inversi\u00f3n XP.<\/span><\/p>\n

La gu\u00eda futura de anuncios monetarios que dio Banco de M\u00e9xico al informar el segundo ajuste en la tasa, se\u00f1ala:<\/span><\/p>\n

Hacia adelante, prev\u00e9 que el entorno inflacionario permitir\u00e1 discutir ajustes en la tasa de referencia. Tomar\u00e1 en cuenta la perspectiva de que los choques globales continuar\u00e1n desvaneci\u00e9ndose y los efectos de la debilidad de la actividad econ\u00f3mica. Considerar\u00e1 la incidencia de la postura monetaria restrictiva que se ha mantenido y la que siga imperando sobre la evoluci\u00f3n de la inflaci\u00f3n a lo largo del horizonte en el que opera la pol\u00edtica monetaria\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

Este p\u00e1rrafo es el que identifican como el aviso de que ha iniciado el ciclo de recortes.<\/span><\/p>\n

De acuerdo con la economista para M\u00e9xico en BNP Paribas, Pamela D\u00edaz Loubet, el tono del comunicado cambi\u00f3 a dovish, ante el contexto de cambios en la actividad econ\u00f3mica y \u201ces un reconocimiento impl\u00edcito de que estamos en un ciclo de recortes\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dovish, en lenguaje monetario, indica una posici\u00f3n m\u00e1s flexible, incorpora un relajamiento que contribuir\u00e1 a una recuperaci\u00f3n econ\u00f3mica.<\/span><\/p>\n

Una se\u00f1al similar fue le\u00edda desde Brasil, donde se encuentra el economista jefe del banco de inversi\u00f3n XP, Marco Oviedo.<\/span><\/p>\n

Los argumentos para recortar la tasa eran relativamente fuertes en el sentido que hay elementos de la inflaci\u00f3n que han mejorado y hay riesgos sobre la actividad econ\u00f3mica\u201d, resalt\u00f3.<\/span><\/p>\n

Desde Nueva York, el economista para Am\u00e9rica Latina en Goldman Sachs explic\u00f3 que el citado enunciado del comunicado \u201cinsin\u00faa un recorte de tasas en la pr\u00f3xima reuni\u00f3n\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cEspec\u00edficamente, mirando hacia adelante, la Junta de Gobierno prev\u00e9 que el entorno inflacionario puede permitir discutir m\u00e1s ajustes de la tasa\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

En tanto, el economista senior para Am\u00e9rica Latina en Pantheon Macroeconomics, Andr\u00e9s Abad\u00eda, se\u00f1al\u00f3 que la menci\u00f3n de posibles ajustes de tasas junto con la persistente debilidad econ\u00f3mica sugieren que es probable que haya m\u00e1s recortes de tasas\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

Cincuenta puntos o m\u00e1s para este a\u00f1o<\/span>
\nEntre los economistas consultados no hay consenso sobre cu\u00e1nto recortar\u00e1 Banco de M\u00e9xico la tasa para lo que resta del a\u00f1o. La experta de BNP considera que pueden ser dos ajustes m\u00e1s, de la mano de los que har\u00e1 el Fed. Este escenario dejar\u00eda la tasa a fin de a\u00f1o en 10.25 por ciento. Con ella coincide el experto de Pantheon Macoreconomics.<\/span><\/p>\n

El estratega de XP estima que pueden venir los ajustes en cada una de las pr\u00f3ximas tres reuniones que quedan, para septiembre, noviembre y diciembre, lo que dejar\u00eda la tasa en 10 por ciento.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mientras el experto de Goldman Sachs espera solo un recorte adicional de un cuarto de punto que llevar\u00eda a la tasa a un nivel de 10.50% para el cierre del a\u00f1o.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Entre los economistas consultados no hay consenso sobre cu\u00e1nto recortar\u00e1 Banco de M\u00e9xico la tasa para lo que resta del […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":43735,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[2050],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-43734","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economia"],"yoast_head":"\nArranca ciclo de recortes en la tasa de referencia - 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