{"id":44443,"date":"2024-08-19T08:39:08","date_gmt":"2024-08-19T13:39:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/?p=44443"},"modified":"2024-08-19T08:39:08","modified_gmt":"2024-08-19T13:39:08","slug":"goldman-sachs-rebaja-a-20-las-probabilidades-de-recesion-en-eu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/2024\/08\/19\/goldman-sachs-rebaja-a-20-las-probabilidades-de-recesion-en-eu\/","title":{"rendered":"Goldman Sachs rebaja a 20% las probabilidades de recesi\u00f3n en EU"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">A principios de mes, la agencia elev\u00f3 las probabilidades de recesi\u00f3n desde el 15%, despu\u00e9s de que la tasa de desempleo alcanzara en julio su nivel m\u00e1s alto en tres a\u00f1os, desatando el temor a una recesi\u00f3n.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Goldman Sachs ha rebajado las probabilidades de que Estados Unidos entre en recesi\u00f3n en los pr\u00f3ximos 12 meses del 25% al 20%, tras los \u00faltimos informes semanales sobre solicitudes de subsidio de desempleo y ventas minoristas.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">A principios de mes, la agencia de valores elev\u00f3 las probabilidades de recesi\u00f3n desde el 15%, despu\u00e9s de que la tasa de desempleo alcanzara en julio su nivel m\u00e1s alto en tres a\u00f1os, desatando el temor a una recesi\u00f3n.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">\u00abAhora hemos rebajado nuestra probabilidad del 25% al 20%, principalmente porque los datos de julio y principios de agosto publicados desde el 2 de agosto no muestran signos de recesi\u00f3n\u00bb, dijo el economista jefe de Goldman Sachs para Estados Unidos, Jan Hatzius, en una nota el s\u00e1bado.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Una expansi\u00f3n continuada har\u00eda que Estados Unidos se pareciera m\u00e1s a otras econom\u00edas del G10, donde la regla Sahm se ha mantenido menos del 70% del tiempo\u00bb, a\u00f1adi\u00f3.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">El informe de solicitudes de subsidio de desempleo del jueves mostr\u00f3 que el n\u00famero de estadounidenses que solicitaron prestaciones por desempleo cay\u00f3 a m\u00ednimos de un mes en la semana anterior, mientras que otros datos revelaron ese mismo d\u00eda que las ventas minoristas aumentaron en julio m\u00e1s que en un a\u00f1o y medio.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Hatzius dijo que si el informe de empleo de agosto parece \u00abrazonablemente bueno\u00bb, reducir\u00eda la probabilidad de recesi\u00f3n en Estados Unidos al 15 por ciento.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Mantiene que la Reserva Federal recortar\u00e1 los tipos de inter\u00e9s en 25 puntos b\u00e1sicos en su reuni\u00f3n de septiembre, pero no descart\u00f3 un recorte de 50 puntos b\u00e1sicos si el informe sobre el empleo no alcanza las expectativas.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A principios de mes, la agencia elev\u00f3 las probabilidades de recesi\u00f3n desde el 15%, despu\u00e9s de que la tasa de [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":44444,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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Veracruz, Ver. \u2014 El estado de Veracruz mantendr\u00e1 condiciones favorables para la presencia de lluvias durante los pr\u00f3ximos d\u00edas, principalmente durante las noches y\u2026","rel":"","context":"En \u00abESTADOS\u00bb","block_context":{"text":"ESTADOS","link":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/category\/estados\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/LLUVIAS.jpg?fit=1200%2C740&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/LLUVIAS.jpg?fit=1200%2C740&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/LLUVIAS.jpg?fit=1200%2C740&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/LLUVIAS.jpg?fit=1200%2C740&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/LLUVIAS.jpg?fit=1200%2C740&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":88893,"url":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/2026\/09\/26\/proteccion-civil-alerta-por-lluvias-y-tormentas-en-veracruz-este-fin-de-semana\/","url_meta":{"origin":44443,"position":1},"title":"Protecci\u00f3n Civil alerta por lluvias y tormentas en Veracruz este fin de semana","author":"Redacci\u00f3n Pol\u00edticos","date":"26 de septiembre de 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Xalapa, Ver.- La Secretar\u00eda de Protecci\u00f3n Civil activ\u00f3 un Aviso Especial para este fin de semana debido a la presencia de una vaguada sobre el territorio veracruzano, que provocar\u00e1 lluvias y tormentas entre este s\u00e1bado 26 y domingo 27 de septiembre. 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