{"id":44506,"date":"2024-08-20T08:28:34","date_gmt":"2024-08-20T13:28:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/?p=44506"},"modified":"2024-08-20T08:28:34","modified_gmt":"2024-08-20T13:28:34","slug":"fed-aplicaria-tres-recortes-de-tasas-de-25-puntos-base-este-ano-encuesta","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/2024\/08\/20\/fed-aplicaria-tres-recortes-de-tasas-de-25-puntos-base-este-ano-encuesta\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed aplicar\u00eda tres recortes de tasas de 25 puntos base este a\u00f1o: encuesta"},"content":{"rendered":"

Se prev\u00e9 que la tasa de desempleo se mantenga en torno a 4.3% actual hasta el 2026. Seg\u00fan la mediana de las previsiones de la encuesta.<\/span><\/p>\n

La Reserva Federal (Fed) recortar\u00eda las tasas de inter\u00e9s en 25 puntos base (pb) en cada una de las tres reuniones restantes del 2024, una reducci\u00f3n m\u00e1s de lo previsto el mes pasado, pronostic\u00f3 una escasa mayor\u00eda de economistas encuestados por Reuters, quienes afirman que es improbable que se produzca una recesi\u00f3n.<\/span><\/p>\n

El cambio en las previsiones de recortes de r\u00e9ditos de la Fed se produce despu\u00e9s de que el informe de empleo de julio en Estados Unidos (EU) fuera m\u00e1s d\u00e9bil de lo esperado, lo que anim\u00f3 a los operadores de futuros de tasas de inter\u00e9s a fijar un precio de hasta 120 pb de reducci\u00f3n en el 2024 a principios de este mes. En la actualidad, ese precio se ha reducido a unos 100 pb.<\/span><\/p>\n

Los inversionistas tambi\u00e9n se\u00f1alaron que una violenta, aunque breve, venta masiva en los mercados tambi\u00e9n impuls\u00f3 las agresivas peticiones de recortes de tasas, relacionadas con la liquidaci\u00f3n de grandes posiciones apalancadas como consecuencia de una repentina y brusca alza del yen japon\u00e9s.<\/span><\/p>\n

Aunque algunos funcionarios de la Fed insin\u00faan que se avecinan recortes de r\u00e9ditos, la mayor\u00eda de los economistas encuestados por Reuters entre el 14 y el 19 de agosto no esperan una serie r\u00e1pida de recortes. Los datos recientes, incluido el s\u00f3lido informe de ventas minoristas de la semana pasada, sugieren que la econom\u00eda funciona relativamente bien, incluso aunque la inflaci\u00f3n retroceda.<\/span><\/p>\n

El banco central estadounidense recortar\u00e1 la tasa de los fondos federales en 25 pb en septiembre, noviembre y diciembre, que la situar\u00edan en un rango entre 4.50 y 4.75% a finales del 2024, seg\u00fan 54% de los encuestados, 55 de 101.<\/span><\/p>\n

Los mercados, que antes apostaban por un recorte de medio punto porcentual en septiembre, valoran actualmente en torno a 70% la probabilidad de un recorte de un cuarto de punto porcentual el mes pr\u00f3ximo.<\/span><\/p>\n

M\u00e1s de un tercio, 34 de los encuestados, pronosticaron dos recortes este a\u00f1o y uno de los encuestados previ\u00f3 s\u00f3lo una reducci\u00f3n. Once economistas esperan que la Fed recorte las tasas 100 pb o m\u00e1s.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cLa base de los recortes que tenemos se debe sobre todo a que la inflaci\u00f3n est\u00e1 bajando. No es tanto que la actividad se est\u00e9 ralentizando (\u2026) Vemos una econom\u00eda bastante resistente que crece cerca de la tendencia y, con eso, creemos que la inflaci\u00f3n s\u00f3lo disminuye gradualmente\u201d, dijo Jonathan Millar, economista senior de EU en Barclays.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cEl mercado laboral est\u00e1 aguantando muy bien. Se est\u00e1 enfriando gradualmente, pero no esperamos que se debilite mucho. La tasa de desempleo tal vez sume otra d\u00e9cima m\u00e1s o menos desde donde est\u00e1. No hay realmente ninguna raz\u00f3n para que la Fed entre en p\u00e1nico\u201d, mencion\u00f3 Millar<\/span><\/p>\n

Se prev\u00e9 que la tasa de desempleo se mantenga en torno a 4.3% actual hasta el 2026. Seg\u00fan la mediana de las previsiones de la encuesta, la inflaci\u00f3n s\u00f3lo disminuir\u00e1 ligeramente en los pr\u00f3ximos dos a\u00f1os.<\/span><\/p>\n

Se espera que todas las medidas de inflaci\u00f3n encuestadas \u2013el \u00edndice de precios de consumo (IPC), el IPC subyacente, el \u00edndice de precios de los gastos de consumo personal\u2013 se mantengan por encima de 2% al menos hasta el 2026.<\/span><\/p>\n

A pesar de la reciente relajaci\u00f3n, el crecimiento salarial se ha mantenido por encima del rango de 3.0-3.5%, considerada coherente con el objetivo de inflaci\u00f3n de 2% de la Fed.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Se prev\u00e9 que la tasa de desempleo se mantenga en torno a 4.3% actual hasta el 2026. Seg\u00fan la mediana […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":44507,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[2050],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44506","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economia"],"yoast_head":"\nFed aplicar\u00eda tres recortes de tasas de 25 puntos base este a\u00f1o: encuesta - Pol\u00edticos al Desnudo<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/2024\/08\/20\/fed-aplicaria-tres-recortes-de-tasas-de-25-puntos-base-este-ano-encuesta\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Fed aplicar\u00eda tres recortes de tasas de 25 puntos base este a\u00f1o: encuesta - Pol\u00edticos al Desnudo\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Se prev\u00e9 que la tasa de desempleo se mantenga en torno a 4.3% actual hasta el 2026. 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