{"id":44905,"date":"2024-08-26T08:25:38","date_gmt":"2024-08-26T13:25:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/?p=44905"},"modified":"2024-08-26T08:25:38","modified_gmt":"2024-08-26T13:25:38","slug":"desaceleracion-principal-factor-de-riesgo-a-la-baja-en-la-inflacion","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/2024\/08\/26\/desaceleracion-principal-factor-de-riesgo-a-la-baja-en-la-inflacion\/","title":{"rendered":"\u201cDesaceleraci\u00f3n, principal factor de riesgo a la baja en la inflaci\u00f3n\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Ajustes en la tasa no indican abandono de la postura restrictiva, asegur\u00f3 en entrevista.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Las decisiones de Banxico est\u00e1n enfocadas en su mandato \u00fanico y al tomarlas asumimos todas las variables disponibles, de tal forma que la postura monetaria sea la necesaria para seguir contribuyendo a llevar a la inflaci\u00f3n hacia su meta\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Galia Borja, subgobernadora de Banxico<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">La desaceleraci\u00f3n de la econom\u00eda es el principal factor de riesgo a la baja para el cumplimiento del pron\u00f3stico de inflaci\u00f3n, advirti\u00f3 Galia Borja, subgobernadora del Banco de M\u00e9xico (Banxico).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">\u201cNos importa mucho analizar lo que pasa con la actividad econ\u00f3mica en cuanto a que es un determinante de la inflaci\u00f3n. Cuando hay moderaci\u00f3n en la actividad econ\u00f3mica, usualmente, se presenta una disminuci\u00f3n en la demanda de los bienes y servicios de los entes econ\u00f3micos\u201d, explic\u00f3.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Reconoci\u00f3 que desde la decisi\u00f3n de junio, cuando la Junta de Gobierno dej\u00f3 la tasa sin cambio, en 11%, ya contaban con algunos elementos sobre la actividad econ\u00f3mica del segundo trimestre, que le hicieron colocarla como un riesgo a la baja para la inflaci\u00f3n.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Incluso para aquella decisi\u00f3n de junio, cuando hilaron dos pausas consecutivas, refiri\u00f3 que removieron de los riesgos al alza para la inflaci\u00f3n la parte de \u201cuna resiliencia mayor a la esperada para la econom\u00eda\u201d e incluyeron como riesgo a la baja \u201cuna actividad econ\u00f3mica menor a la anticipada\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">\u201cEn la decisi\u00f3n de agosto se confirm\u00f3 que estaba debilit\u00e1ndose la actividad econ\u00f3mica respecto de lo que esper\u00e1bamos, lo que efectivamente se confirm\u00f3 con el dato del PIB del 2\u00ba trimestre\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">El Instituto Nacional de Estad\u00edstica y Geograf\u00eda (Inegi) dio a conocer que el PIB al segundo trimestre experiment\u00f3 un avance de 0.2% respecto del cuarto previo, con lo que hil\u00f3 siete lecturas trimestrales en desaceleraci\u00f3n. Este desempe\u00f1o gener\u00f3 un crecimiento de 1% anual que fue inferior al previsto por el mismo Instituto en su estimaci\u00f3n oportuna.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">La banquera central sostuvo que son varios los determinantes de la inflaci\u00f3n, unos de corto plazo, como los choques de oferta que se espera se desvanezcan y los de mediano plazo, donde destaca el crecimiento econ\u00f3mico.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Suben pron\u00f3stico por efectos de corto plazo<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Acerca del cambio en el pron\u00f3stico de inflaci\u00f3n del Banxico para los pr\u00f3ximos tres trimestres, donde esperan un promedio de 4.4% para el \u00faltimo cuarto de 2024, que es superior a 4% que proyectaron en junio, coment\u00f3 que fue un ajuste sobre su expectativa de los componentes que afectan en el corto plazo a la inflaci\u00f3n.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">\u201cComo se puede ver en el comunicado, (del anuncio monetario de agosto) no estamos ajustando al alza al componente subyacente. Entonces, todo lo que es este ajuste, viene de la no subyacente que se compone de bienes vol\u00e1tiles que son productos agropecuarios y energ\u00e9ticos y los choques que vemos ah\u00ed, no necesariamente responden a la pol\u00edtica monetaria\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">La pol\u00edtica monetaria no tiene impacto en los choques de oferta. \u201cNuestro trabajo es hacer este an\u00e1lisis y comunicarlo. Esperamos, por su naturaleza, que se desvanezcan pronto, Podemos ver en la primera quincena de agosto que ya empez\u00f3 a suceder, pas\u00f3 de 10.36% a 8.80% y aqu\u00ed es una muestra de la volatilidad, tiene cambios muy dr\u00e1sticos\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ajustes en la tasa no indican abandono de la postura restrictiva, asegur\u00f3 en entrevista. Las decisiones de Banxico est\u00e1n enfocadas [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":44906,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[2050],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44905","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economia"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>\u201cDesaceleraci\u00f3n, principal factor de riesgo a la baja en la inflaci\u00f3n\u201d - Pol\u00edticos al Desnudo<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/2024\/08\/26\/desaceleracion-principal-factor-de-riesgo-a-la-baja-en-la-inflacion\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u201cDesaceleraci\u00f3n, principal factor de riesgo a la baja en la inflaci\u00f3n\u201d - Pol\u00edticos al Desnudo\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Ajustes en la tasa no indican abandono de la postura restrictiva, asegur\u00f3 en entrevista. 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