{"id":53434,"date":"2025-01-02T00:22:39","date_gmt":"2025-01-02T06:22:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/?p=53434"},"modified":"2025-01-02T00:22:39","modified_gmt":"2025-01-02T06:22:39","slug":"cae-precio-del-petroleo-por-crisis-geopolitica-y-demanda-china","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/2025\/01\/02\/cae-precio-del-petroleo-por-crisis-geopolitica-y-demanda-china\/","title":{"rendered":"Cae precio del petr\u00f3leo por crisis geopol\u00edtica y demanda china"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>El mercado del petr\u00f3leo se encamina a cerrar 2024 con p\u00e9rdidas y lejos de los 100 d\u00f3lares por barril que pronosticaron los especialistas, en medio de crisis geopol\u00edticas globales que suelen impulsar su cotizaci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n<p>Hasta la jornada 30 de diciembre, el West Texas Intermediate (WTI), la principal referencia para el mercado petrolero estadunidense, tuvo un descenso de 0.88 por ciento a una sesi\u00f3n de que concluya 2024, para cerrar en 71.65 d\u00f3lares por barril.<\/p>\n<p>El Brent, el referencial en mercados de Medio Oriente, Europa y \u00c1frica, registr\u00f3 una p\u00e9rdida de 3.44 por ciento desde los 77.04 d\u00f3lares por barril en que se vendi\u00f3 el 29 de diciembre de 2023 hasta los 74.39 que se pagaron ayer, su segundo a\u00f1o con retrocesos.<\/p>\n<p>Para la mezcla mexicana la historia no fue diferente: el precio del barril pas\u00f3 de 67.65 a 66.24 d\u00f3lares, un descenso de 2.08 por ciento.<\/p>\n<p>El efecto divisa durante la mayor parte del a\u00f1o fue un freno para la cotizaci\u00f3n del petr\u00f3leo.<\/p>\n<p>El barril de Brent sufri\u00f3 en las \u00faltimas jornadas del a\u00f1o para mantenerse en 74 d\u00f3lares, al calor de los nuevos est\u00edmulos en China y la ca\u00edda superior a la esperada de los inventarios de crudo en Estados Unidos.<\/p>\n<p>Norbert R\u00fccker, jefe de econom\u00eda e investigaci\u00f3n en Julius Baer, describi\u00f3 que el consumo de China est\u00e1 alcanzando su punto m\u00e1ximo, por lo que duda que 2025 sea un mejor a\u00f1o para el mercado de petr\u00f3leo.<\/p>\n<p>La demanda de China parece haber alcanzado su pico, debido a la transici\u00f3n energ\u00e9tica y al reajuste estructural del mercado inmobiliario. Mientras, la producci\u00f3n y las exportaciones de petr\u00f3leo est\u00e1n creciendo en Am\u00e9rica del Norte y del Sur.<\/p>\n<p>La pol\u00edtica petrolera seguir\u00e1 siendo clave en 2025, ya que hay diversos factores que podr\u00edan socavar la cohesi\u00f3n de la Organizaci\u00f3n de Pa\u00edses Exportadores de Petr\u00f3leo (OPEP) y sus aliados, incluidos Rusia y Kazajist\u00e1n, que est\u00e1n manteniendo su producci\u00f3n de crudo por debajo de su capacidad durante mucho m\u00e1s tiempo del esperado, tanto por el mercado como por ellos mismos.<\/p>\n<p>La medida, inicialmente implementada para absorber el exceso de oferta durante la pandemia, y como un intento por mantener los precios, se est\u00e1 volviendo cada vez m\u00e1s dif\u00edcil de suspender.<\/p>\n<p>Los precios m\u00e1s altos del gas natural, m\u00e1s que el cambio de gobierno, sugieren que el auge del gas de esquisto (shale) en Estados Unidos continuar\u00e1, ya que la perforaci\u00f3n sigue siendo altamente rentable. Am\u00e9rica quiz\u00e1s ofrecer\u00e1 suficiente suministro adicional para satisfacer la demanda extra de los pr\u00f3ximos a\u00f1os. Estas fuerzas del mercado est\u00e1n determinando las cotizaciones actuales del petr\u00f3leo.<\/p>\n<p>Mientras la geopol\u00edtica fue un factor alcista en 2024, la pol\u00edtica petrolera sigue siendo una carta a la baja que podr\u00eda impactar en 2025. En medio de estas incertidumbres, R\u00fccker prev\u00e9 incrementos marginales en la producci\u00f3n de petr\u00f3leo de las petronaciones el pr\u00f3ximo a\u00f1o: \u201cDadas las recientes postergaciones, es poco probable que las promesas oficiales sean una gu\u00eda confiable. Mantenemos nuestra perspectiva neutral y prevemos que el petr\u00f3leo se comercialice en torno a 65 d\u00f3lares por barril\u201d.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>El mercado del petr\u00f3leo se encamina a cerrar 2024 con p\u00e9rdidas y lejos de los 100 d\u00f3lares por barril que [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":53435,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[2050],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53434","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economia"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - 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