{"id":53918,"date":"2025-01-08T00:06:01","date_gmt":"2025-01-08T06:06:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/?p=53918"},"modified":"2025-01-08T00:06:01","modified_gmt":"2025-01-08T06:06:01","slug":"sector-bancario-se-mantendra-rentable-en-entorno-de-altas-tasas-de-interes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/2025\/01\/08\/sector-bancario-se-mantendra-rentable-en-entorno-de-altas-tasas-de-interes\/","title":{"rendered":"Sector bancario se mantendr\u00e1 rentable en entorno de altas tasas de inter\u00e9s"},"content":{"rendered":"

La desaceleraci\u00f3n econ\u00f3mica y las tasas de inter\u00e9s persistentemente altas presionar\u00e1n el crecimiento de los bancos y la calidad de sus activos, destaca el an\u00e1lisis \u201cPanorama bancario por pa\u00eds\u201d, realizado por Alfredo Calvo, analista de la calificadora Standard and Poor\u2019s.<\/p>\n

Sin embargo, el sector se mantendr\u00e1 rentable, pues el retorno sobre capital- el dinero que invierten los due\u00f1os de los bancos- ser\u00e1 de alrededor de 18 por ciento, tanto en el 2024 como en el 2025, y el retorno sobre activos rondar\u00e1 el 2.0 por ciento.<\/p>\n

Con s\u00f3lidos fundamentos crediticios, los bancos est\u00e1n bien posicionados para navegar los vientos en contra, se\u00f1ala el estudio.<\/p>\n

\u201cLa desaceleraci\u00f3n de la econom\u00eda en 2024 y 2025 y las tasas de inter\u00e9s altas debilitar\u00e1n la capacidad de los clientes bancarios para pagar sus deudas. El aumento de las provisiones para p\u00e9rdidas crediticias presionar\u00e1 la rentabilidad de los bancos, sin embargo, los esfuerzos para la contenci\u00f3n de gastos y las pol\u00edticas conservadoras de originaci\u00f3n permitir\u00e1n a las instituciones financieras mantener una rentabilidad s\u00f3lida\u201d, expuso Calvo.<\/p>\n

Se\u00f1al\u00f3 que la demanda de cr\u00e9dito se moderar\u00e1 a medida que la econom\u00eda se desacelere y la confianza de los inversionistas disminuya.<\/p>\n

S&P espera que los bancos comerciales sigan representando entre 45 y 50 por ciento del mercado de cr\u00e9dito total, y que los pr\u00e9stamos de estas entidades crezcan entre 4 y 5 por ciento en t\u00e9rminos reales en 2024 y 2025.<\/p>\n

\u201cLos pr\u00e9stamos a hogares consistir\u00e1n principalmente en tarjetas de cr\u00e9dito y productos de consumo garantizados\u201d, indic\u00f3.<\/p>\n

Continuidad de pol\u00edticas en 2025<\/strong><\/p>\n

La calificadora dijo que se espera una amplia continuidad de las pol\u00edticas bajo la nueva administraci\u00f3n y que las posibles medidas que debiliten los pesos y contrapesos (incluidos el poder judicial y el Banco de M\u00e9xico) podr\u00edan disminuir la confianza de los inversionistas.<\/p>\n

\u201cEsto podr\u00eda perjudicar el crecimiento y la calidad crediticia del soberano\u201d, mencion\u00f3.<\/p>\n

Coment\u00f3 que el nearshoring podr\u00eda aumentar la demanda de cr\u00e9dito, aunque avanza lentamente, pues hay obst\u00e1culos como el suministro inadecuado de energ\u00eda y agua limpia, as\u00ed como la disponibilidad de mano de obra especializada.<\/p>\n

Respecto al nuevo gobierno del presidente electo de Estados Unidos, Donald Trump, S&P sostuvo que la amenaza de cambios al T-MEC, programado para revisi\u00f3n a mediados de 2026, podr\u00eda retrasar las decisiones de inversi\u00f3n.<\/p>\n

\u201cNuestro escenario base supone que no habr\u00e1 cambios importantes en el tratado de comercio, ni antes ni durante el proceso de revisi\u00f3n\u201d, confi\u00f3 la firma.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

La desaceleraci\u00f3n econ\u00f3mica y las tasas de inter\u00e9s persistentemente altas presionar\u00e1n el crecimiento de los bancos y la calidad de […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":53919,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[2050],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53918","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economia"],"yoast_head":"\nSector bancario se mantendr\u00e1 rentable en entorno de altas tasas de inter\u00e9s - 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