{"id":56160,"date":"2025-02-07T00:10:18","date_gmt":"2025-02-07T06:10:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/?p=56160"},"modified":"2025-02-06T21:25:38","modified_gmt":"2025-02-07T03:25:38","slug":"aranceles-a-china-podrian-reducir-exportaciones-de-crudo-de-eu-en-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/2025\/02\/07\/aranceles-a-china-podrian-reducir-exportaciones-de-crudo-de-eu-en-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Aranceles a China podr\u00edan reducir exportaciones de crudo de EU en 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"

Una incipiente guerra comercial entre Estados Unidos y China\u00a0amenaza con\u00a0reducir las exportaciones de crudo estadunidense en 2025 por primera vez desde la pandemia, al reducir el acceso al mercado chino,\u00a0advierten\u00a0analistas.<\/p>\n

La perspectiva refleja una posible consecuencia no deseada de las pol\u00edticas proteccionistas del presidente Donald Trump, que van en contra de la promesa de su gobierno de maximizar la producci\u00f3n estadounidense de petr\u00f3leo y gas, que ya es r\u00e9cord.<\/p>\n

EU el tercer mayor exportador de crudo<\/strong><\/p>\n

Estados Unidos se ha convertido en el tercer mayor exportador del mundo, detr\u00e1s de Arabia Saud\u00ed y Rusia, desde que en 2015 levant\u00f3 una prohibici\u00f3n federal de 40 a\u00f1os sobre las exportaciones de petr\u00f3leo local.<\/p>\n

Si bien las exportaciones de crudo de Estados Unidos crecieron s\u00f3lo ligeramente en 2024, la \u00faltima vez que cayeron fue en 2021, despu\u00e9s de que el brote de covid-19 redujo dr\u00e1sticamente la demanda mundial por energ\u00eda.<\/p>\n

\u201cLa demanda internacional de crudo estadunidense puede estar tocando techo y esto podr\u00eda acelerarlo a\u00fan m\u00e1s\u201d, coment\u00f3 Matt Smith, analista de Kpler.<\/p>\n

Aranceles a China frenar\u00edan las compras<\/strong><\/p>\n

Rohit Rathod, analista senior de la firma de seguimiento de buques Vortexa, dijo que esperaba que las exportaciones totales de petr\u00f3leo de Estados Unidos cayeran a 3.6 millones de barriles por d\u00eda en 2025 desde 3.8 millones de bpd en 2024, ya que los aranceles chinos mantienen algunos grados de petr\u00f3leo de Estados Unidos en su mercado.<\/p>\n

China consume unos 166 mil barriles diarios de crudo estadunidense, aproximadamente 5 por ciento de todos los cargamentos de exportaci\u00f3n de Estados Unidos.<\/p>\n

Parte de esa cantidad podr\u00eda quedarse en las costas estadounidenses o desviarse a otros mercados despu\u00e9s de que Pek\u00edn anunci\u00f3 esta semana aranceles de represalia.<\/p>\n

Lo m\u00e1s probable es que la ca\u00edda de las exportaciones se componga de tipos de petr\u00f3leo de densidad media con un mayor contenido de azufre, como el Mars y el Southern Green Canyon, que se consideran grados de acidez media. Ambos representaron alrededor de 48 por ciento del crudo estadounidense importado por China el a\u00f1o pasado.<\/p>\n

Los grados son ideales para las refiner\u00edas estadounidenses y podr\u00edan encontrar f\u00e1cilmente compradores en el pa\u00eds, sobre todo si Estados Unidos cumple sus amenazas de imponer nuevos aranceles al petr\u00f3leo canadiense y mexicano, seg\u00fan los analistas.<\/p>\n

\u201cLa acidez media son barriles bienvenidos en la costa estadounidense del Golfo. Los refinadores lo necesitan\u201d, dijo Rathod.<\/p>\n

La mayor parte del resto de las importaciones chinas de crudo procedente de Estados Unidos fueron de tipos de menor densidad y azufre, como el West Texas Intermediate, que se conocen como grados ligeros y dulces.<\/p>\n

Refiner\u00edas europeas e indias pueden ser los nuevos mercados<\/strong><\/p>\n

El tipo de petr\u00f3leo podr\u00eda desviarse a refiner\u00edas europeas e indias a precios competitivos, seg\u00fan los analistas.<\/p>\n

Para China, es probable que el impacto sea moderado, ya que las importaciones estadounidenses representaron s\u00f3lo 1.7 por ciento de las totales de crudo en 2024, con un valor de unos 6 mil millones de d\u00f3lares, seg\u00fan los datos de las aduanas chinas, y menos que 2.5 por ciento de 2023.<\/p>\n

China hab\u00eda aumentado sus importaciones desde Canad\u00e1 en torno a 30 por ciento el a\u00f1o pasado, hasta superar 500 mil bpd, gracias a la ampliaci\u00f3n del oleoducto Trans Mountain.<\/p>\n

El apetito de China por el petr\u00f3leo estadounidense tambi\u00e9n ha disminuido en los \u00faltimos a\u00f1os debido a los descuentos del petr\u00f3leo ruso e iran\u00ed.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Una incipiente guerra comercial entre Estados Unidos y China\u00a0amenaza con\u00a0reducir las exportaciones de crudo estadunidense en 2025 por primera vez […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":56161,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[2050],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-56160","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economia"],"yoast_head":"\nAranceles a China podr\u00edan reducir exportaciones de crudo de EU en 2025 - 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