{"id":61433,"date":"2025-04-22T00:09:54","date_gmt":"2025-04-22T06:09:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/?p=61433"},"modified":"2025-04-21T20:48:40","modified_gmt":"2025-04-22T02:48:40","slug":"enfrenta-eu-desaceleracion-economica-leve-y-atipica-iif","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/2025\/04\/22\/enfrenta-eu-desaceleracion-economica-leve-y-atipica-iif\/","title":{"rendered":"Enfrenta EU desaceleraci\u00f3n econ\u00f3mica leve y at\u00edpica: IIF"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"nota-justify\">Estados Unidos enfrenta una desaceleraci\u00f3n econ\u00f3mica leve y at\u00edpica, marcada por una creciente incertidumbre generada por las pol\u00edticas en materia de comercio, inflaci\u00f3n y crecimiento y se espera una \u201cleve recesi\u00f3n\u201d en la segundo semestre de 2025, de acuerdo con el Instituto de Finanzas Internacionales (IIF por su sigla en ingl\u00e9s).<\/p>\n<p class=\"nota-justify\">Esta desaceleraci\u00f3n se atribuye en gran parte a un entorno de incertidumbre pol\u00edtica creciente, donde las pol\u00edticas comerciales y migratorias est\u00e1n tomando el rol de herramientas macroecon\u00f3micas y geopol\u00edticas y con ella han generado presiones adicionales en los costos y elevando la inflaci\u00f3n subyacente al 4.6 por ciento hacia finales de 2025, detall\u00f3 el organismo.<\/p>\n<p class=\"nota-justify\">Agreg\u00f3 que se esperan promedios anuales proyectados del 1.4 por ciento en 2025 y 0.8 por ciento en 2026, ampli\u00f3.<\/p>\n<p class=\"nota-justify\">Detall\u00f3 que la contracci\u00f3n del PIB sea de un 0.8 por ciento anualizado en el tercer trimestre y 0.3 por ciento en el cuarto, con una recuperaci\u00f3n inici\u00e1ndose a principios de 2026.<\/p>\n<p class=\"nota-justify\">Este nuevo escenario refleja una econom\u00eda que no sufre un shock externo tradicional, sino una desaceleraci\u00f3n inducida por pol\u00edticas internas, con volatilidad en la confianza del consumidor y en la comunicaci\u00f3n pol\u00edtica, explic\u00f3 la IIF.<\/p>\n<p class=\"nota-justify\">Aunque no se anticipa un colapso en los vol\u00famenes de importaci\u00f3n, s\u00ed se prev\u00e9 una reasignaci\u00f3n gradual de los flujos comerciales debido a los cambios en el r\u00e9gimen arancelario.<\/p>\n<p class=\"nota-justify\">Adem\u00e1s se prev\u00e9n tres recortes en las tasas de inter\u00e9s por parte de la Reserva Federal en 2025 y tres m\u00e1s en 2026, condicionados a que la inflaci\u00f3n alcance su pico en oto\u00f1o y el crecimiento econ\u00f3mico se mantenga d\u00e9bil.<\/p>\n<p class=\"nota-justify\">El IIF agreg\u00f3 que la volatilidad en los rendimientos de los bonos del Tesoro y la posible erosi\u00f3n de la confianza en la formulaci\u00f3n de pol\u00edticas podr\u00edan poner a prueba la resiliencia del d\u00f3lar y la liquidez global.<\/p>\n<p class=\"nota-justify\">Estados Unidos enfrenta una desaceleraci\u00f3n econ\u00f3mica leve y at\u00edpica, marcada por una creciente incertidumbre generada por las pol\u00edticas en materia de comercio, inflaci\u00f3n y crecimiento y se espera una \u201cleve recesi\u00f3n\u201d en la segundo semestre de 2025, de acuerdo con el Instituto de Finanzas Internacionales (IIF por su sigla en ingl\u00e9s).<\/p>\n<p class=\"nota-justify\">Esta desaceleraci\u00f3n se atribuye en gran parte a un entorno de incertidumbre pol\u00edtica creciente, donde las pol\u00edticas comerciales y migratorias est\u00e1n tomando el rol de herramientas macroecon\u00f3micas y geopol\u00edticas y con ella han generado presiones adicionales en los costos y elevando la inflaci\u00f3n subyacente al 4.6 por ciento hacia finales de 2025, detall\u00f3 el organismo.<\/p>\n<p class=\"nota-justify\">Agreg\u00f3 que se esperan promedios anuales proyectados del 1.4 por ciento en 2025 y 0.8 por ciento en 2026, ampli\u00f3.<\/p>\n<p class=\"nota-justify\">Detall\u00f3 que la contracci\u00f3n del PIB sea de un 0.8 por ciento anualizado en el tercer trimestre y 0.3 por ciento en el cuarto, con una recuperaci\u00f3n inici\u00e1ndose a principios de 2026.<\/p>\n<p class=\"nota-justify\">Este nuevo escenario refleja una econom\u00eda que no sufre un shock externo tradicional, sino una desaceleraci\u00f3n inducida por pol\u00edticas internas, con volatilidad en la confianza del consumidor y en la comunicaci\u00f3n pol\u00edtica, explic\u00f3 la IIF.<\/p>\n<p class=\"nota-justify\">Aunque no se anticipa un colapso en los vol\u00famenes de importaci\u00f3n, s\u00ed se prev\u00e9 una reasignaci\u00f3n gradual de los flujos comerciales debido a los cambios en el r\u00e9gimen arancelario.<\/p>\n<p class=\"nota-justify\">Adem\u00e1s se prev\u00e9n tres recortes en las tasas de inter\u00e9s por parte de la Reserva Federal en 2025 y tres m\u00e1s en 2026, condicionados a que la inflaci\u00f3n alcance su pico en oto\u00f1o y el crecimiento econ\u00f3mico se mantenga d\u00e9bil.<\/p>\n<p class=\"nota-justify\">El IIF agreg\u00f3 que la volatilidad en los rendimientos de los bonos del Tesoro y la posible erosi\u00f3n de la confianza en la formulaci\u00f3n de pol\u00edticas podr\u00edan poner a prueba la resiliencia del d\u00f3lar y la liquidez global.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Estados Unidos enfrenta una desaceleraci\u00f3n econ\u00f3mica leve y at\u00edpica, marcada por una creciente incertidumbre generada por las pol\u00edticas en materia [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":61435,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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