{"id":62177,"date":"2025-05-03T00:12:28","date_gmt":"2025-05-03T06:12:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/?p=62177"},"modified":"2025-05-02T21:37:08","modified_gmt":"2025-05-03T03:37:08","slug":"analistas-ajustan-estimacion-de-crecimiento-de-la-economia-mexicana-bdem","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/2025\/05\/03\/analistas-ajustan-estimacion-de-crecimiento-de-la-economia-mexicana-bdem\/","title":{"rendered":"Analistas ajustan estimaci\u00f3n de crecimiento de la econom\u00eda mexicana: BdeM"},"content":{"rendered":"

Analistas econ\u00f3micos del sector privado consultados por el Banco de M\u00e9xico (BdeM) ajustaron de nueva cuenta su previsi\u00f3n de crecimiento de la econom\u00eda mexicana para este a\u00f1o, por lo que la estimaci\u00f3n se ubic\u00f3 en 0.20 por ciento, inform\u00f3 este viernes la instituci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n

Despu\u00e9s de que el Instituto Nacional de Estad\u00edstica y Geograf\u00eda (Inegi) dio a conocer en d\u00edas recientes que el Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) del pa\u00eds creci\u00f3 0.2 por ciento en el primer trimestre frente al periodo anterior y 0.8 por ciento anual, el banco central indic\u00f3 que los 43 grupos de an\u00e1lisis y consultor\u00eda econ\u00f3mica del sector privado nacional y extranjero recortaron la proyecci\u00f3n de marzo, que fue de 0.50 por ciento para todo 2025, dato que mostrar\u00eda la afectaci\u00f3n causada por la pol\u00edtica comercial de Estados Unidos.<\/p>\n

De acuerdo con los pron\u00f3sticos de los especialistas, para el segundo trimestre de este a\u00f1o estiman que la econom\u00eda mexicana observe un retroceso de 0.29 por ciento, dato que tambi\u00e9n observ\u00f3 un ajuste, luego de que en el tercer mes del a\u00f1o proyectaron un ligero aumento de 0.7 por ciento.<\/p>\n

Para julio-septiembre tambi\u00e9n ajustaron sus estimaciones, pues pas\u00f3 de 0.16 por ciento a una contracci\u00f3n de 0.21 por ciento.<\/p>\n

No obstante, mantuvieron su proyecci\u00f3n sobre el un rebote en el \u00faltimo trimestre del a\u00f1o el PIB, el cual impulsar\u00eda a la econom\u00eda mexicana para este a\u00f1o. Los analistas tambi\u00e9n ajustaron a la baja el pron\u00f3stico, de tal forma que pas\u00f3 de 0.89 a 0.50 por ciento.<\/p>\n

Los datos m\u00e1s recientes de la econom\u00eda mexicana mostraron que el pa\u00eds esquiv\u00f3 la recesi\u00f3n t\u00e9cnica, que implica tres periodos consecutivos con contracciones. De cumplirse las expectativas, de los analistas, M\u00e9xico no pasar\u00eda por una recesi\u00f3n, pero s\u00ed por un bajo crecimiento, la cual estar\u00eda causada por la imposici\u00f3n de aranceles por parte del gobierno del presidente estadunidense, Donald Trump.<\/p>\n

Adem\u00e1s, el sondeo muestra que la previsi\u00f3n de crecimiento del PIB del pa\u00eds para 2026 tambi\u00e9n fue modificado, pues lo ajustaron de 1.60 a 1.50 por ciento.<\/p>\n

Los especialistas consultados estiman que la inflaci\u00f3n general sea de 3.80 por ciento, dato que de confirmarse estar\u00eda dentro del objetivo del BdeM, que es de 3 por ciento con un intervalo de un punto porcentual hacia arriba o hacia abajo.<\/p>\n

No obstante, de acuerdo con los datos publicados por la instituci\u00f3n, el dato tambi\u00e9n observ\u00f3 un ajuste, pues en marzo la expectativa era de 3.70 por ciento para el cierre de este a\u00f1o.<\/p>\n

Para el \u00edndice de precios subyacente, que determina la trayectoria de la inflaci\u00f3n general en el mediano y largo plazo, los especialistas prev\u00e9n que se ubique en 3.90 por ciento, cifra que fue revisada al alza, luego de que en el tercer mes se ubicara en 3.76 por ciento.<\/p>\n

Para abril, las proyecciones muestran que la inflaci\u00f3n general ser\u00eda de 0.27 por ciento mensual, mientras que para mayo habr\u00e1 una reducci\u00f3n de 0.11 por ciento, para junio un aumento de 0.25 por ciento y en julio, como consecuencia de la temporada de calor, avanzar\u00e1 0.40 por ciento.<\/p>\n

En lo que respecta al tipo de cambio, los analistas estiman que el d\u00f3lar se cotice al final de a\u00f1o en 20.81 pesos, dato que mostr\u00f3 un ligero ajuste luego de que en marzo la estimaci\u00f3n fue de 20.80. La expectativa para el cierre de 2026 fue de 20.74 pesos por cada divisa estadunidense, dato que tambi\u00e9n mostr\u00f3 una ligera revisi\u00f3n al alza.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Analistas econ\u00f3micos del sector privado consultados por el Banco de M\u00e9xico (BdeM) ajustaron de nueva cuenta su previsi\u00f3n de crecimiento […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":62178,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[2050],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-62177","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economia"],"yoast_head":"\nAnalistas ajustan estimaci\u00f3n de crecimiento de la econom\u00eda mexicana: BdeM - 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