{"id":66083,"date":"2025-07-02T01:08:29","date_gmt":"2025-07-02T07:08:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/?p=66083"},"modified":"2025-07-02T01:08:29","modified_gmt":"2025-07-02T07:08:29","slug":"cambia-fitch-perspectiva-del-sistema-bancario-mexicano-de-neutral-a-deterioro","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/2025\/07\/02\/cambia-fitch-perspectiva-del-sistema-bancario-mexicano-de-neutral-a-deterioro\/","title":{"rendered":"Cambia Fitch perspectiva del sistema bancario mexicano de \u00abneutral\u00bb a \u00abdeterioro\u00bb"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"article-content-tts\" class=\"nota-contenido mb-5\">\n<div id=\"content_nitf\">\n<p class=\"nota-justify\">La calificadora Fitch cambi\u00f3 la perspectiva del sector bancario de M\u00e9xico de \u201cneutral\u201d a \u00abdeterioro\u00bb en medio del d\u00e9bil crecimiento del producto interno bruto (PIB) y de los efectos de la guerra comercial generada por los aranceles impuestos por Estados Unidos.<\/p>\n<p class=\"nota-justify\">El cambio obedece a las posibles implicaciones que el entorno generar\u00e1 en la rentabilidad de los bancos y la calidad de sus activos.<\/p>\n<p class=\"nota-justify\">La perspectiva de los bancos de Tailandia, Taiw\u00e1n y Corea, tambi\u00e9n fue revisada de neutral a deterioro.<\/p>\n<p class=\"nota-justify\">\u201cLos sectores bancarios de mercados emergentes se han enfrentado a una mayor volatilidad debido al debilitamiento de las perspectivas macroecon\u00f3micas globales, la ca\u00edda de los precios del petr\u00f3leo en el primer semestre de 2025 y la escalada de las tensiones geopol\u00edticas en el Medio Oriente\u201d, se\u00f1al\u00f3 la calificadora.<\/p>\n<p class=\"nota-justify\">Alejandro Tapia, analista de Fitch, expuso en el reporte que la firma prev\u00e9 un deterioro moderado en el desempe\u00f1o financiero de los bancos mexicanos, tras mantener indicadores sobresalientes durante los \u00faltimos tres a\u00f1os.<\/p>\n<p class=\"nota-justify\">Lo anterior, debido a un menor crecimiento econ\u00f3mico por los cambios en el cobro de aranceles por parte de Estados Unidos, la incertidumbre ocasionada y una menor expansi\u00f3n del PIB de ese pa\u00eds.<\/p>\n<p class=\"nota-justify\">\u201cFitch prev\u00e9 actualmente una contracci\u00f3n del PIB de M\u00e9xico de un 0.1 por ciento en 2025, desde un crecimiento real del 1.4 por ciento en el 2024\u201d, detall\u00f3 el especialista.<\/p>\n<p class=\"nota-justify\">Precis\u00f3 que los activos de la banca son excepcionalmente s\u00f3lidos, pero cierto deterioro podr\u00eda deberse a las d\u00e9biles perspectivas macroecon\u00f3micas.<\/p>\n<p class=\"nota-justify\">Coment\u00f3 que el probable aumento de los costos que genera la actividad crediticia afectar\u00e1 las s\u00f3lidas ganancias de los bancos de los \u00faltimos a\u00f1os.<\/p>\n<p class=\"nota-justify\">\u201cFitch prev\u00e9 una disminuci\u00f3n moderada de los indicadores de rentabilidad de los bancos debido a la confluencia de un menor crecimiento del cr\u00e9dito, la posible reducci\u00f3n de los m\u00e1rgenes de inter\u00e9s netos (MIN) y la probabilidad de un aumento de los costos crediticios\u201d, mencion\u00f3.<\/p>\n<p class=\"nota-justify\">Actualmente, los bancos operan con s\u00f3lidos niveles de capitalizaci\u00f3n y liquidez, incluso considerando la r\u00e1pida evoluci\u00f3n de los riesgos macroecon\u00f3micos y crediticios.<\/p>\n<p class=\"nota-justify\">\u201cEs probable que la absorci\u00f3n de p\u00e9rdidas mejore a\u00fan m\u00e1s con respecto a las m\u00e9tricas recientes\u201d, coment\u00f3 Tapia.<\/p>\n<p class=\"nota-justify\">Fitch no anticipa presiones en la calificaci\u00f3n de los bancos debido al deterioro previsto del sector, ya que el margen financiero inicial parece amplio en relaci\u00f3n con los niveles actuales de calificaci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n<p class=\"nota-justify\">El bajo nivel de cr\u00e9dito respecto al PIB y un sector bancario relativamente desarrollado, aunque concentrado, permite a los bancos seguir generando vol\u00famenes de negocio acordes con niveles de riesgo aceptables.<\/p>\n<p class=\"nota-justify\">El pasado 12 de junio, Victoria Rodr\u00edguez Ceja, gobernadora del Banco de M\u00e9xico, declar\u00f3 que en un contexto caracterizado por la desaceleraci\u00f3n econ\u00f3mica mundial y local, una continuaci\u00f3n del proceso desinflacionario y constantes tensiones comerciales con Estados Unidos, el sistema financiero mexicano se mantiene s\u00f3lido y resiliente.\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.jornada.com.mx\/noticia\/2025\/06\/12\/economia\/sistema-financiero-aun-solido-pese-a-riesgos-bdem\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/www.jornada.com.mx\/noticia\/2025\/06\/12\/economia\/sistema-financiero-aun-solido-pese-a-riesgos-bdem<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"notas-relacionadas\"><\/div>\n<div 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[&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":66084,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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