{"id":72935,"date":"2025-10-16T00:16:18","date_gmt":"2025-10-16T06:16:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/?p=72935"},"modified":"2025-10-16T00:16:18","modified_gmt":"2025-10-16T06:16:18","slug":"fmi-alerta-sobre-la-elevada-deuda-publica-mundial-e-insta-a-los-paises-a-crear-reservas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/2025\/10\/16\/fmi-alerta-sobre-la-elevada-deuda-publica-mundial-e-insta-a-los-paises-a-crear-reservas\/","title":{"rendered":"FMI alerta sobre la elevada deuda p\u00fablica mundial e insta a los pa\u00edses a crear reservas"},"content":{"rendered":"

La deuda p\u00fablica mundial se prev\u00e9 que supere el cien por ciento del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) en 2029, alcanzando su nivel m\u00e1s alto desde 1948 y continuando su ascenso, advirti\u00f3 este mi\u00e9rcoles el Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI), por lo que inst\u00f3 a los pa\u00edses a acumular reservas para protegerse de los riesgos econ\u00f3micos.<\/p>\n

Vitor Gaspar, jefe del departamento de asuntos fiscales del FMI, dijo que los niveles de deuda p\u00fablica mundial podr\u00edan elevarse hasta 123 por ciento del PIB a finales de la d\u00e9cada en un \u201cescenario adverso, pero plausible\u201d, justo menos que el m\u00e1ximo hist\u00f3rico de 132 por ciento, alcanzado justo despu\u00e9s de la Segunda Guerra Mundial.<\/p>\n

Riesgo de \u201cbucle catastr\u00f3fico\u201d fiscal-financiero, como el de 2010<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201cDesde nuestro punto de vista, la situaci\u00f3n m\u00e1s preocupante ser\u00eda aquella en la que se produjeran turbulencias financieras\u201d, dijo en una entrevista, citando un informe separado del FMI publicado el martes que advert\u00eda de una posible correcci\u00f3n \u201cdesordenada\u201d del mercado.<\/p>\n

Eso podr\u00eda desencadenar un \u201cbucle catastr\u00f3fico\u201d fiscal-financiero, como el que se produjo durante la crisis de la deuda soberana europea que comenz\u00f3 en 2010, dijo Gaspar.<\/p>\n

El FMI elev\u00f3 esta semana su previsi\u00f3n de crecimiento mundial para 2025, dado el impacto m\u00e1s benigno de los aranceles, aunque advirti\u00f3 de que una nueva guerra comercial entre Estados Unidos y China \u2013que se intensific\u00f3 despu\u00e9s de que se fijaran las cifras\u2013 podr\u00eda ralentizar la producci\u00f3n de forma significativa.<\/p>\n

Necesario reformas fiscales y aumentar reservas<\/strong><\/p>\n

Gaspar dijo que la perspectiva altamente incierta hac\u00eda que las reformas fiscales fueran m\u00e1s importantes que nunca, y que el FMI estaba instando tanto a las econom\u00edas avanzadas como a los pa\u00edses en desarrollo a reducir sus niveles de deuda, recortar los d\u00e9ficits y acumular reservas.<\/p>\n

\u201cCon riesgos bastante significativos en el horizonte, es importante estar preparados, y la preparaci\u00f3n requiere disponer de colchones fiscales que permitan a las autoridades responder a graves perturbaciones adversas en caso de crisis financiera\u201d, afirm\u00f3.<\/p>\n

Estudios previos del FMI muestran que los pa\u00edses con m\u00e1s espacio fiscal estaban en mejores condiciones de limitar los da\u00f1os al empleo y a la actividad econ\u00f3mica, en caso de graves perturbaciones adversas combinadas con una crisis financiera, seg\u00fan Gaspar.<\/p>\n

En su m\u00e1s reciente Monitor Fiscal, el FMI se\u00f1al\u00f3 que las econom\u00edas ricas ten\u00edan niveles de deuda p\u00fablica que ya superaban cien por ciento del PIB, o que se preve\u00eda que superar\u00e1n ese nivel, entre ellas Estados Unidos, Canad\u00e1, China, Francia, Italia, Jap\u00f3n y Reino Unido.<\/p>\n

Su riesgo se considera de bajo a moderado, ya que estos pa\u00edses cuentan con mercados de bonos soberanos profundos y m\u00e1s opciones de pol\u00edtica monetaria, mientras que muchos mercados emergentes y pa\u00edses de renta baja disponen de menos recursos y afrontan costos de endeudamiento m\u00e1s elevados, a pesar de sus niveles de deuda relativamente bajos.<\/p>\n

El endeudamiento es mucho m\u00e1s caro ahora que en el periodo comprendido entre la crisis financiera mundial de 2008-2009 y la pandemia que comenz\u00f3 en 2020, se\u00f1al\u00f3 Gaspar.<\/p>\n

La subida de las tasas de inter\u00e9s presiona los presupuestos en un momento en que las exigencias son elevadas debido a las tensiones geopol\u00edticas, el aumento de las cat\u00e1strofes naturales, las tecnolog\u00edas disruptivas y el envejecimiento de la poblaci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n

Invertir en capital humano podr\u00eda impulsar crecimiento<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201cAunque reconocemos que la ecuaci\u00f3n fiscal es muy dif\u00edcil de cuadrar pol\u00edticamente, el momento de prepararse es ahora\u201d, escribi\u00f3 en un avance del monitor fiscal, se\u00f1alando que el gasto p\u00fablico espec\u00edfico en educaci\u00f3n e infraestructuras podr\u00eda impulsar el PIB.<\/p>\n

Seg\u00fan el FMI, destinar tan solo un punto porcentual del PIB del gasto corriente a la educaci\u00f3n u otras inversiones en capital humano podr\u00eda impulsar el PIB en m\u00e1s de 3 por ciento de aqu\u00ed a 2050 en las econom\u00edas avanzadas, y casi el doble en las econom\u00edas de mercado emergentes y en desarrollo.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

La deuda p\u00fablica mundial se prev\u00e9 que supere el cien por ciento del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) en 2029, alcanzando […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":72936,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[2050],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-72935","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economia"],"yoast_head":"\nFMI alerta sobre la elevada deuda p\u00fablica mundial e insta a los pa\u00edses a crear reservas - 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