{"id":80391,"date":"2026-02-21T00:09:22","date_gmt":"2026-02-21T06:09:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/?p=80391"},"modified":"2026-02-20T22:48:28","modified_gmt":"2026-02-21T04:48:28","slug":"arancel-global-de-trump-tendra-impacto-negativo-para-mexico-en-el-corto-plazo-expertos","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/2026\/02\/21\/arancel-global-de-trump-tendra-impacto-negativo-para-mexico-en-el-corto-plazo-expertos\/","title":{"rendered":"Arancel global de Trump tendr\u00e1 \u201cimpacto negativo para M\u00e9xico en el corto plazo\u201d: expertos"},"content":{"rendered":"

El fallo de la Corte de Estados Unidos de invalidar la mayor\u00eda de los aranceles impuestos bajo la Ley de Poderes Econ\u00f3micos de Emergencia Internacional (IEEPA) es \u201cpositivo\u201d. No obstante, el arancel global anunciado por Donald Trump \u201ctendr\u00e1 un impacto negativo para M\u00e9xico en el corto plazo\u201d, de acuerdo a expertos y el sector privado.<\/p>\n

Analistas de Monex indicaron que la decisi\u00f3n del tribunal deja sin efecto el arancel de 25 por ciento que se hab\u00eda impuesto a ciertos bienes de M\u00e9xico, Canad\u00e1 y China bajo el argumento de la emergencia por el fentanilo.<\/p>\n

No obstante, el fallo no afecta a los aranceles sectoriales establecidos bajo otros marcos legales, como la Secci\u00f3n 232 para acero, aluminio y autom\u00f3viles.<\/p>\n

El Consejo Empresarial Mexicano de Comercio Exterior, Inversi\u00f3n y Tecnolog\u00eda (COMCE) coment\u00f3 que la decisi\u00f3n judicial implica la eliminaci\u00f3n de los aranceles bajo IEEPA, pero tambi\u00e9n se\u00f1al\u00f3 que \u201cla administraci\u00f3n estadunidense recurrir\u00e1 a otros instrumentos legales\u201d.<\/p>\n

Janneth Quiroz Zamora, directora de An\u00e1lisis de Grupo Financiero Monex, coment\u00f3 a La Jornada que el arancel global adicional de 10 por ciento anunciado por Trump \u201ctendr\u00e1 un impacto negativo para M\u00e9xico en el corto plazo, aunque con matices relevantes derivados de su car\u00e1cter temporal y de la profunda integraci\u00f3n econ\u00f3mica con Estados Unidos\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u201cAl tratarse de un gravamen aplicado a importaciones de todos los pa\u00edses por hasta aproximadamente 150 d\u00edas, funciona en la pr\u00e1ctica como un impuesto general al comercio hacia el mercado estadunidense\u201d, indic\u00f3.<\/p>\n

Quiroz Zamora se\u00f1al\u00f3 que los sectores m\u00e1s expuestos son aquellos altamente integrados en las cadenas de suministro de Am\u00e9rica del Norte, en particular, automotriz y autopartes, electr\u00f3nica, equipo el\u00e9ctrico, maquinaria, dispositivos m\u00e9dicos y manufacturas intermedias, adem\u00e1s de ciertos productos agroindustriales.<\/p>\n

\u201cEn estas industrias, incluso un arancel relativamente ‘moderado\u2019 de 10 por ciento puede ser significativo debido a m\u00e1rgenes estrechos y a la necesidad de mantener flujos log\u00edsticos continuos\u201d, indic\u00f3.<\/p>\n

Apunt\u00f3 que a nivel macroecon\u00f3mico, la medida podr\u00eda traducirse en una desaceleraci\u00f3n temporal de las exportaciones manufactureras, menor dinamismo industrial, presi\u00f3n sobre el empleo en regiones exportadoras y episodios de volatilidad cambiaria, especialmente si los mercados interpretan el anuncio como se\u00f1al de mayor proteccionismo comercial.<\/p>\n

\u201cEl impacto dif\u00edcilmente ser\u00eda catastr\u00f3fico porque existen factores que amortiguan el choque\u201d, destac\u00f3, despu\u00e9s de recordar que el arancel es temporal y tiene l\u00edmites legales claros.<\/p>\n

Subray\u00f3 que el arancel no implica la desaparici\u00f3n del T-MEC, pero s\u00ed introduce tensi\u00f3n pol\u00edtica en la relaci\u00f3n bilateral al mostrar que Washington conserva instrumentos unilaterales fuera de dicho acuerdo.<\/p>\n

El Consejo se\u00f1al\u00f3 que los aranceles bajo la Secci\u00f3n 122 s\u00f3lo son una herramienta de car\u00e1cter temporal que puede utilizarse como medida de transici\u00f3n mientras se definen acciones adicionales.<\/p>\n

Adelant\u00f3 que el gobierno de Estados Unidos podr\u00eda activar investigaciones bajo la Secci\u00f3n 301 de la misma ley, mecanismo que permite imponer aranceles espec\u00edficos por pa\u00eds, ya sea sobre un producto determinado o sobre m\u00faltiples productos, cuando se concluye que existen pr\u00e1cticas consideradas violatorias o discriminatorias frente a los intereses comerciales estadounidenses. A diferencia de la Secci\u00f3n 122, la 301 requiere investigaciones formales y puede derivar en medidas de mayor permanencia.<\/p>\n

La Confederaci\u00f3n de C\u00e1maras Nacionales de Comercio, Servicios y Turismo (Concanaco-Servytur) reconoci\u00f3 la relevancia institucional de la resoluci\u00f3n por la Corte y consider\u00f3 que el precedente reafirma un principio esencial para la econom\u00eda real: la pol\u00edtica comercial funciona mejor cuando se conduce con certidumbre jur\u00eddica, proporcionalidad y reglas claras.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

El fallo de la Corte de Estados Unidos de invalidar la mayor\u00eda de los aranceles impuestos bajo la Ley de […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":80392,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[2050],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-80391","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economia"],"yoast_head":"\nArancel global de Trump tendr\u00e1 \u201cimpacto negativo para M\u00e9xico en el corto plazo\u201d: expertos - 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Su proyecto no tiene como prioridad elevar el nivel de participaci\u00f3n pol\u00edtica de los estadounidenses para\u2026","rel":"","context":"En \u00abOPINI\u00d3N\u00bb","block_context":{"text":"OPINI\u00d3N","link":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/category\/columnistas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/JOSE-GARCIA-SANCHEZ.jpg?fit=760%2C426&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/JOSE-GARCIA-SANCHEZ.jpg?fit=760%2C426&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/JOSE-GARCIA-SANCHEZ.jpg?fit=760%2C426&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/JOSE-GARCIA-SANCHEZ.jpg?fit=760%2C426&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":88106,"url":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/2026\/08\/27\/trump-rebautiza-el-lago-ontario-y-abre-otro-frente-de-tension-con-canada\/","url_meta":{"origin":80391,"position":5},"title":"Trump rebautiza el lago Ontario y abre otro frente de tensi\u00f3n con Canad\u00e1","author":"Redacci\u00f3n Pol\u00edticos","date":"27 de agosto de 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"El presidente estadounidense orden\u00f3 que las dependencias federales utilicen el nombre \u201clago Am\u00e9rica\u201d; Ottawa rechaz\u00f3 la medida y advirti\u00f3 que conservar\u00e1 su denominaci\u00f3n hist\u00f3rica. 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El presidente Donald Trump firm\u00f3 una orden ejecutiva para\u2026","rel":"","context":"En \u00abINTERNACIONAL\u00bb","block_context":{"text":"INTERNACIONAL","link":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/category\/internacional\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/TRUMP-2-scaled.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/TRUMP-2-scaled.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/TRUMP-2-scaled.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/TRUMP-2-scaled.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/TRUMP-2-scaled.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/ELAR.jpg?fit=1200%2C799&ssl=1","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80391","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=80391"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80391\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/80392"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=80391"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=80391"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=80391"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}