{"id":81386,"date":"2026-03-11T00:11:52","date_gmt":"2026-03-11T06:11:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/?p=81386"},"modified":"2026-03-10T23:06:54","modified_gmt":"2026-03-11T05:06:54","slug":"hacienda-puede-amortiguar-con-hasta-6-7-pesos-una-escalada-en-gasolinas-por-conflicto-en-iran","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/2026\/03\/11\/hacienda-puede-amortiguar-con-hasta-6-7-pesos-una-escalada-en-gasolinas-por-conflicto-en-iran\/","title":{"rendered":"Hacienda puede amortiguar con hasta 6.7 pesos una escalada en gasolinas por conflicto en Ir\u00e1n"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"nota-justify\">Una escalada de los precios del petr\u00f3leo que se prolongue entre tres y cuatro semanas m\u00e1s aumentar\u00eda el riesgo de que el ataque a Ir\u00e1n desemboque en una recesi\u00f3n mundial y en una presi\u00f3n fiscal para M\u00e9xico, advirti\u00f3 Gabriel Casillas, economista en jefe para Am\u00e9rica Latina en Barclays. De momento el conflicto a\u00fan parece un \u201cchoque manejable\u201d, pero una lectura m\u00e1s completa depender\u00e1 de su duraci\u00f3n y de qu\u00e9 tanto dispare el costo del crudo.<\/p>\n<p class=\"nota-justify\">Para M\u00e9xico los efectos vienen por el lado fiscal. El pa\u00eds podr\u00eda recibir mayores ingresos por el lado de las exportaciones de crudo, pero su amortiguador frente a un encarecimiento de las gasolinas se topa en 6 pesos con 70 centavos, casi una cuarta parte del costo total que en promedio tienen las gasolinas para el consumidor final.<\/p>\n<p class=\"nota-justify\">Estos 6.70 pesos son el margen del impuesto especial sobre producci\u00f3n y servicios (IEPS) que Hacienda ha usado para amortiguar el encarecimiento de las gasolinas en M\u00e9xico, durante los \u00faltimos choques inflacionarios en los mercados de combustibles. Como ejemplo, el registrado entre 2022 y 2023, con la escalada en el conflicto Ucrania-Rusia.<\/p>\n<p class=\"nota-justify\">M\u00e1s all\u00e1 de los m\u00e1rgenes log\u00edsticos, que representan alrededor de 7.73 pesos, Hacienda cobra o no la totalidad del IEPS dependiendo de qu\u00e9 tanto se encarezcan los combustibles a nivel internacional. Incluso, en 2022, para aliviar la presi\u00f3n sobre los precios, la dependencia dio\u00a0subsidios adicionales a los importadores y productores de gasolina a trav\u00e9s del impuesto sobre la renta y al valor agregado.<\/p>\n<p class=\"nota-justify\">\u201cEl gobierno continuar\u00e1 sacrificando la recaudaci\u00f3n del IEPS; lo importante es cu\u00e1nto tiempo se puede hacer sin presionar la parte fiscal. Nadie est\u00e1 preocupado por eso, pero s\u00ed hay que vigilarlo\u201d, destac\u00f3 Casillas.<\/p>\n<p class=\"nota-justify\">El economista agreg\u00f3 que el siglo pasado un pico en el precio del petr\u00f3leo pr\u00e1cticamente se traduc\u00eda en una recesi\u00f3n global. En lo que va del XXI no es as\u00ed, incluso en 2008 primero vino la debacle financiera y luego el encarecimiento de los energ\u00e9ticos.<\/p>\n<p class=\"nota-justify\">\u201cEn este siglo, a partir del 2000, s\u00ed hemos tenido picos en el precio del petr\u00f3leo en varias ocasiones, pero ninguna ha propiciado una recesi\u00f3n\u201d, reiter\u00f3 para poner en contexto los riesgos del actual conflicto derivado del ataque de Estados Unidos e Israel a Ir\u00e1n.<\/p>\n<p class=\"nota-justify\">Sin embargo, mucho depende de la duraci\u00f3n del conflicto y de qu\u00e9 tanto suba el precio del energ\u00e9tico,\u00a0sopes\u00f3. \u201cNo porque no haya pasado este a\u00f1o, no quiere decir que nunca vaya a pasar\u201d, advirti\u00f3.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Una escalada de los precios del petr\u00f3leo que se prolongue entre tres y cuatro semanas m\u00e1s aumentar\u00eda el riesgo de [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":81387,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[2050],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-81386","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economia"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.5 - 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El tanquero Vilma zarp\u00f3 del puerto de Pajaritos, Veracruz, con 400 mil barriles\u2026","rel":"","context":"En \u00abOPINI\u00d3N\u00bb","block_context":{"text":"OPINI\u00d3N","link":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/category\/columnistas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/CRISTIANI-2.jpg?fit=800%2C445&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/CRISTIANI-2.jpg?fit=800%2C445&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/CRISTIANI-2.jpg?fit=800%2C445&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/CRISTIANI-2.jpg?fit=800%2C445&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/esca.jpg?fit=1200%2C766&ssl=1","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81386","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=81386"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81386\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/81387"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=81386"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=81386"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=81386"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}