{"id":82701,"date":"2026-04-07T02:51:23","date_gmt":"2026-04-07T08:51:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/?p=82701"},"modified":"2026-04-07T02:51:23","modified_gmt":"2026-04-07T08:51:23","slug":"bbva-advierte-riesgos-en-precriterios-economicos-2027-por-supuestos-optimistas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/2026\/04\/07\/bbva-advierte-riesgos-en-precriterios-economicos-2027-por-supuestos-optimistas\/","title":{"rendered":"BBVA advierte riesgos en precriterios econ\u00f3micos 2027 por supuestos optimistas"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"nota-justify\">Los precriterios generales de pol\u00edtica econ\u00f3mica 2027 mantienen una postura fiscal responsable, pero descansan en supuestos m\u00e1s optimistas que los del mercado, lo que eleva el riesgo de incumplimiento de los objetivos fiscales. Asimismo, mantener esa prudencia ser\u00e1 cada vez m\u00e1s complicado, debido al limitado espacio fiscal y a que, en ausencia de una reforma, ser\u00e1 menor cada a\u00f1o, alert\u00f3 el \u00e1rea de estudios econ\u00f3micos de BBVA M\u00e9xico.<\/p>\n<p class=\"nota-justify\">De acuerdo con el estudio: \u201c<i>Pre-Criterios Generales de Pol\u00edtica Econ\u00f3mica 2027<\/i>\u201d, elaborado por los analistas econ\u00f3micos Arnulfo Rodr\u00edguez y Carlos Serrano, el gobierno federal avanza en la consolidaci\u00f3n fiscal, al establecer una meta de menos 3.5 por ciento del PIB para los requerimientos financieros del sector p\u00fablico (RFSP), la medida m\u00e1s amplia del d\u00e9ficit fiscal en M\u00e9xico, en 2027.<\/p>\n<p class=\"nota-justify\">Sin embargo, ser\u00e1 necesario que el gobierno federal logre un super\u00e1vit primario de 1.1 por ciento del PIB en 2027. Ello representar\u00eda una pol\u00edtica fiscal ligeramente m\u00e1s restrictiva a la de este a\u00f1o, la cual proyecta un super\u00e1vit primario de 0.5 por ciento del PIB para 2026.<\/p>\n<p class=\"nota-justify\">La continuaci\u00f3n de la consolidaci\u00f3n fiscal ubicar\u00eda el saldo hist\u00f3rico de los RFSP en 55 por ciento del PIB al cierre del pr\u00f3ximo a\u00f1o.<\/p>\n<p class=\"nota-justify\">Para BBVA M\u00e9xico este saldo ser\u00e1 de 55.8 por ciento del PIB para 2027. Usando expectativas de crecimiento de 2 y 2.4 por ciento para el PIB real como supuesto para la estimaci\u00f3n de las cifras de finanzas p\u00fablicas de 2026 y 2027, el gobierno federal prev\u00e9 que los ingresos tributarios crecer\u00e1n a una tasa anual real de 2.8 por ciento en 2027.<\/p>\n<p class=\"nota-justify\">Lo anterior, representa un riesgo al alza para la evoluci\u00f3n de los RFSP y el saldo hist\u00f3rico mencionado.<\/p>\n<p class=\"nota-justify\">\u201cSi se materializa un escenario de menor crecimiento econ\u00f3mico en 2027, m\u00e1s en l\u00ednea con el consenso de analistas, el Banco de M\u00e9xico y el Fondo Monetario Internacional, el cumplimiento de la meta de super\u00e1vit primario para el siguiente a\u00f1o se complicar\u00e1, haciendo necesarios m\u00e1s recortes en el gasto p\u00fablico programable en un contexto de reducido espacio fiscal\u201d, prev\u00e9n los analistas.<\/p>\n<p class=\"nota-justify\">La consolidaci\u00f3n fiscal implementada a partir de 2025 no solamente se apoya en una reducci\u00f3n de alrededor de un punto porcentual del PIB en la inversi\u00f3n f\u00edsica sino tambi\u00e9n en menores presupuestos para los rubros de salud y educaci\u00f3n, coment\u00f3 el \u00e1rea de estudios econ\u00f3micos de BBVA M\u00e9xico.<\/p>\n<p class=\"nota-justify\">Por ejemplo, el presupuesto planeado para los servicios de atenci\u00f3n a la salud ser\u00e1 solamente de 1.5 por ciento del PIB en 2027 contra 1.6 por ciento del PIB en 2026; los pa\u00edses de la OCDE destinan en promedio entre 6 y 7 por ciento a este rubro. Indiscutiblemente, lo anterior seguir\u00e1 limitando el crecimiento potencial del pa\u00eds y las oportunidades individuales de bienestar y progreso.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Los precriterios generales de pol\u00edtica econ\u00f3mica 2027 mantienen una postura fiscal responsable, pero descansan en supuestos m\u00e1s optimistas que los [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":82702,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[2050],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-82701","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economia"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - 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