{"id":83136,"date":"2026-04-15T00:10:50","date_gmt":"2026-04-15T06:10:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/?p=83136"},"modified":"2026-04-15T00:10:50","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T06:10:50","slug":"estimulos-fiscales-a-combustibles-son-factor-de-riesgo-para-las-entidades-federativas-fitch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/2026\/04\/15\/estimulos-fiscales-a-combustibles-son-factor-de-riesgo-para-las-entidades-federativas-fitch\/","title":{"rendered":"Est\u00edmulos fiscales a combustibles son factor de riesgo para las entidades federativas: Fitch"},"content":{"rendered":"

Las entidades federativas enfrentar\u00e1n presiones en sus ingresos, debido a los est\u00edmulos fiscales que activ\u00f3 el conflicto b\u00e9lico entre Estados Unidos e Ir\u00e1n, inform\u00f3 hoy la calificadora Fitch.<\/p>\n

Explic\u00f3 que la guerra junto con el bloqueo del estrecho de Ormuz impulsaron el aumento del precio de la mezcla mexicana por encima de 100 d\u00f3lares por barril, casi el doble de los 54.9 d\u00f3lares presupuestados para 2026.<\/p>\n

Este aumento activ\u00f3 est\u00edmulos fiscales al impuesto especial sobre producci\u00f3n y servicios (IEPS) aplicable a los combustibles.<\/p>\n

\u201cEn opini\u00f3n de Fitch Ratings, el efecto neto sobre la Recaudaci\u00f3n Federal Participable (RFP) ser\u00eda neutralizado por el costo de los subsidios en el escenario base de un conflicto de corta duraci\u00f3n; no obstante, dado el componente tributario con peso relativo importante del IEPS sobre la RFP, las participaciones federales podr\u00edan erosionarse y presionar los m\u00e1rgenes operativos de las entidades federativas\u201d, asegur\u00f3 la firma.<\/p>\n

\u201cUn conflicto prolongado que impulse el precio del crudo por encima de 120 d\u00f3lares por barril podr\u00eda amplificar los costos del IEPS m\u00e1s all\u00e1 de los niveles de 2022, con implicaciones crediticias negativas mayores para las entidades federativas\u201d, advirti\u00f3 la instituci\u00f3n financiera.<\/p>\n

El IEPS a combustibles aporta aproximadamente 13 por ciento\u00a0 de la RFP cuando se recauda sin est\u00edmulos, como ocurri\u00f3 entre 2015 y 2025, con excepci\u00f3n de 2022.<\/p>\n

Para 2026, la Secretar\u00eda de Hacienda y Cr\u00e9dito P\u00fablico (SHCP) estima una menor recaudaci\u00f3n de 15 mil 800 millones de pesos (0.3 por ciento de la RFP) por concepto de IEPS a combustibles.<\/p>\n

\u201cFitch considera que esta cifra podr\u00eda subestimar el impacto probable dada la duraci\u00f3n incierta del conflicto y la trayectoria ascendente de los subsidios. En 2022, cuando el conflicto Rusia-Ucrania elev\u00f3 los precios energ\u00e9ticos, el costo por est\u00edmulos fiscales ascendi\u00f3 a 387 mil 500 millones de pesos, neutralizando casi en su totalidad los excedentes petroleros del sector p\u00fablico por 394 mil 100 millones de pesos.<\/p>\n

Fitch apunt\u00f3 que las condiciones macroecon\u00f3micas de 2026 son significativamente m\u00e1s d\u00e9biles que las observadas en 2022.<\/p>\n

Ese a\u00f1o, la RFP registr\u00f3 un crecimiento real de 6.4 por ciento pese a la ca\u00edda del IEPS, impulsado por la fortaleza del impuesto sobre la renta (ISR) en un contexto de recuperaci\u00f3n pospandemia y crecimiento econ\u00f3mico de 3.7 por ciento.<\/p>\n

Para 2026, Fitch estima un incremento del PIB de 1.7 por ciento en el escenario base conforme a su Global Economic Outlook de marzo de 2026.<\/p>\n

No obstante, en un escenario adverso, estima un crecimiento de 1.0 por ciento.<\/p>\n

Asimismo, el componente petrolero de la RFP se redujo de 44 por ciento en 2008 a 4 por ciento en 2025, lo que limita estructuralmente la capacidad de estos ingresos para compensar ca\u00eddas en la recaudaci\u00f3n tributaria.<\/p>\n

\u201cFitch anticipa que los excedentes petroleros ser\u00e1n absorbidos por el costo de los est\u00edmulos fiscales, los cuales ascienden a aproximadamente 5 mil millones semanales, eliminando los remanentes que capitalizan el Fondo de Estabilizaci\u00f3n de los Ingresos de las Entidades Federativas (FEIEF).<\/p>\n

Las transferencias del Fondo Mexicano del Petr\u00f3leo al FEIEF mantienen una tendencia decreciente, mientras el fondo enfrenta obligaciones financieras derivadas de las potenciaciones de 2020 y 2023.<\/p>\n

Al cierre de 2025, su saldo ascend\u00eda a 12 mil 833 millones, equivalente a 0.9 por ciento de las participaciones federales, nivel insuficiente ante una ca\u00edda significativa de la RFP.<\/p>\n

Fitch no descarta una nueva potenciaci\u00f3n durante 2026, lo que incrementar\u00eda las obligaciones del fondo y reducir\u00eda su capacidad como amortiguador fiscal.<\/p>\n

Pese a los est\u00edmulos fiscales, Fitch espera presiones inflacionarias transitorias derivadas del encarecimiento energ\u00e9tico, que mantendr\u00e1 la inflaci\u00f3n por encima de 4 por ciento (4.6 por ciento anual en marzo), las cuales comprimir\u00edan los m\u00e1rgenes operativos si no se controla el gasto p\u00fablico, las participaciones caen por debajo de lo presupuestado y los recursos del FEIEF resultan insuficientes.<\/p>\n

\u201cLas entidades federativas con mayor recaudaci\u00f3n propia y menor apalancamiento est\u00e1n mejor posicionadas para absorber este doble choque. En contraste, aquellas cuyas participaciones representan una proporci\u00f3n elevada de sus ingresos totales y mantienen estructuras de gasto r\u00edgidas enfrentan una mayor exposici\u00f3n al deterioro del balance operativo, as\u00ed como presiones sobre la cobertura del servicio de la deuda\u201d, dijo Fitch.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Las entidades federativas enfrentar\u00e1n presiones en sus ingresos, debido a los est\u00edmulos fiscales que activ\u00f3 el conflicto b\u00e9lico entre Estados […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":83137,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[2050],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-83136","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economia"],"yoast_head":"\nEst\u00edmulos fiscales a combustibles son factor de riesgo para las entidades federativas: Fitch - 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