{"id":83721,"date":"2026-04-28T00:17:41","date_gmt":"2026-04-28T06:17:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/?p=83721"},"modified":"2026-04-27T18:52:53","modified_gmt":"2026-04-28T00:52:53","slug":"fmi-urge-a-ecuador-corregir-politica-fiscal-incumplio-con-las-metas-de-2025-y-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/2026\/04\/28\/fmi-urge-a-ecuador-corregir-politica-fiscal-incumplio-con-las-metas-de-2025-y-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"FMI urge a Ecuador corregir pol\u00edtica fiscal; incumpli\u00f3 con las metas de 2025 y 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"

Tras la aprobaci\u00f3n de la quinta revisi\u00f3n del programa de financiamiento del Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI), este organismo dice que Ecuador no cumpli\u00f3 las metas fiscales a finales de 2025 ni los objetivos previstos para enero de 2026, debido a menores ingresos petroleros, mayor gasto tributario y costos de compensaci\u00f3n por la reforma a los subsidios al di\u00e9sel, ante lo cual le pidi\u00f3 medidas correctivas urgentes.<\/p>\n

Y no solo eso: las tensiones con Colombia, despu\u00e9s de la aplicaci\u00f3n de tasas arancelarias de hasta 50 por ciento (y de ciento por ciento desde el 1 de mayo), son de la preocupaci\u00f3n del FMI por las fricciones en materia de seguridad entre los dos pa\u00edses, \u201clo que podr\u00eda seguir impactando el comercio bilateral, afectar el suministro energ\u00e9tico y generar presi\u00f3n adicional sobre la balanza externa\u201d.<\/p>\n

A pesar de que mejor\u00f3 la proyecci\u00f3n de crecimiento del PIB para 2026 a 2.5 por ciento, se identifica una desaceleraci\u00f3n frente a 3.7 por ciento estimado para 2025. Y en se sentido, Ecuador incumpli\u00f3 las metas fiscales de 2025 por un \u00abmargen importante\u00bb, con un d\u00e9ficit del sector p\u00fablico no financiero de -2.9 por ciento del PIB. Y el informe explica que esto ocurre por una ca\u00edda en los ingresos petroleros, mayores costos por la reforma de subsidios al di\u00e9sel y un gasto mayor al planeado.<\/p>\n

Este \u00faltimo punto es el m\u00e1s cuestionado al gobierno de Dabiel Noboa porque por las campa\u00f1as electorales del a\u00f1o pasado y para evitar protestas por el incremento de los combustibles, instaur\u00f3 bonos focalizados de m\u00e1s de mil millones de d\u00f3lares, no planificados. Para compensar este d\u00e9ficit, subi\u00f3 el IVA a 15 por ciento a m\u00e1s de 60 productos procesados, entre ellos l\u00e1cteos y carnes.<\/p>\n

El programa de financiamiento que tiene Ecuador (desde 2024), es por 5 mil millones de d\u00f3lares a cuatro a\u00f1os y para hacer los desembolsos el FMI hace revisiones peri\u00f3dicas y la \u00faltima fue el 23 de abril, tras lo cual aprob\u00f3 un desembolso de 394 millones de d\u00f3lares. En el documento, adem\u00e1s de expresar su agradecimiento por la aplicaci\u00f3n de reformas estructurales, advierte riesgos derivados de la volatilidad en los precios del petr\u00f3leo, posibles crisis energ\u00e9ticas internas y desaf\u00edos de seguridad que afectar\u00edan la inversi\u00f3n y el comercio.<\/p>\n

Ecuador es el sexto pa\u00eds en el mundo con el mayor endeudamiento con el FMI, con alrededor de 10 mil millones de d\u00f3lares y el segundo en Am\u00e9rica Latina, detr\u00e1s de Argentina (que adem\u00e1s ocupa el primer lugar en el planeta). Y todo indica que el endeudamiento seguir\u00e1 porque seg\u00fan el propio organismo internacional \u201cel d\u00e9ficit fiscal sigue siendo un desaf\u00edo\u201d, sugiriendo la necesidad de sostener ajustes estructurales hasta 2028 para garantizar la sostenibilidad de las finanzas p\u00fablicas. De hecho, todos los reportes indican que la deuda externa cerrar\u00e1 2026 representando aproximadamente 47.7 por ciento del PIB (cuantificado en alrededor de 100 mil millones de d\u00f3lares).<\/p>\n

El FMI se\u00f1ala que sin inversiones urgentes en el sector petrolero, la extracci\u00f3n de crudo del pa\u00eds podr\u00eda caer, afectando de forma directa las finanzas p\u00fablicas, sobre todo porque el \u201coro negro\u201d sigue siendo una de las principales fuentes de ingresos fiscales y de divisas, en un pa\u00eds dolarizado como Ecuador. \u201cEl sector energ\u00e9tico ecuatoriano est\u00e1 nuevamente bajo presi\u00f3n debido a decisiones de corto plazo, falta de planificaci\u00f3n y una estructura institucional d\u00e9bil que impide mantener pol\u00edticas a largo plazo\u201d, se\u00f1ala el experto petrolero Nelson Baldeon.<\/p>\n

Para superar este panorama, las autoridades manejan una receta de m\u00e1s impuestos efectivos y menos beneficios tributarios, con lo cual se podr\u00eda generar ingresos para incrementar 1.3 por ciento del PIB entre 2026 y 2027.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Tras la aprobaci\u00f3n de la quinta revisi\u00f3n del programa de financiamiento del Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI), este organismo dice que […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":83722,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[28],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-83721","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-internacional"],"yoast_head":"\nFMI urge a Ecuador corregir pol\u00edtica fiscal; 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