{"id":84643,"date":"2026-05-15T00:10:59","date_gmt":"2026-05-15T06:10:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/?p=84643"},"modified":"2026-05-14T23:50:09","modified_gmt":"2026-05-15T05:50:09","slug":"espera-sp-revisiones-anuales-del-t-mec","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/2026\/05\/15\/espera-sp-revisiones-anuales-del-t-mec\/","title":{"rendered":"Espera S&P revisiones anuales del T-MEC"},"content":{"rendered":"

Entre los tres escenarios previstos para las negociaciones del Tratado M\u00e9xico Estados Unidos Canad\u00e1 (T- MEC), el de mayor probabilidad es aquel donde no se llega a una negociaci\u00f3n en julio pero se establece un plazo anual de revisi\u00f3n, lo cual complicar\u00eda los proyectos de los inversionistas, coment\u00f3 Elijah Oliveros-Rosen, economista jefe de mercados emergentes, econom\u00eda global e Investigaci\u00f3n de S&P Global Ratings.<\/p>\n

En un escenario optimista, y poco probable, el acuerdo se renovar\u00eda para los pr\u00f3ximos 16 a\u00f1os y se revisar\u00eda cada seis, mencion\u00f3 en una conferencia en l\u00ednea.<\/p>\n

Expuso que el tiempo previo a la revisi\u00f3n ha estado marcado por la incertidumbre.<\/p>\n

\u201cLo que hemos visto hasta ahora es que la incertidumbre sobre lo que vaya a pasar con el T-MEC ha generado un impacto muy negativo en la inversi\u00f3n en M\u00e9xico\u201d, asegur\u00f3.<\/p>\n

\u201cLa inversi\u00f3n en M\u00e9xico privada ha estado cayendo, cay\u00f3 el a\u00f1o pasado, empez\u00f3 este a\u00f1o en terreno negativo. Entonces una resoluci\u00f3n sobre el tema podr\u00eda mejorar la confianza de los inversionistas sobre sus operaciones y en sus planes estrat\u00e9gicos de largo plazo\u201d, agreg\u00f3.<\/p>\n

Detall\u00f3 que hay tres escenarios respecto a la revisi\u00f3n del T-MEC.\u00a0 El primero es el m\u00e1s optimista, pero no el m\u00e1s probable, y es que los tres pa\u00edses, decidan renovar el acuerdo por 16 a\u00f1os y que cada seis a\u00f1os se revise. Este escenario ser\u00eda adecuado para la planeaci\u00f3n de largo plazo de los inversionistas en M\u00e9xico.<\/p>\n

\u201cEl segundo escenario que quiz\u00e1s es el m\u00e1s probable, es que estas negociaciones no se resuelvan r\u00e1pido, que se extiendan despu\u00e9s de julio, lo que significar\u00eda que el T-MEC se mantiene en plazo, pero se tiene que revisar cada a\u00f1o\u201d, plante\u00f3.<\/p>\n

Elijah Oliveros-Rosen mencion\u00f3 que ese no es un escenario muy positivo para los inversionistas porque claramente el plazo de inversi\u00f3n de planeaci\u00f3n estrat\u00e9gica es muy corto y complica un poco las decisiones de inversi\u00f3n.<\/p>\n

\u201cY el tercer escenario que es el m\u00e1s negativo, pero tampoco es el m\u00e1s probable, y es que uno de los tres pa\u00edses decida abandonar el T-MEC. Para que eso suceda, el pa\u00eds tendr\u00eda que decir: \u201cen seis meses me voy a salir del T-MEC\u201d. Y en ese caso, estamos en un escenario de gran incertidumbre sobre qu\u00e9 aranceles quedan y que aranceles no quedan\u201d, asegur\u00f3.<\/p>\n

El especialista destac\u00f3 que el segundo escenario es el que mayor probabilidad tiene de concretarse y en el cual si bien hay un poco de incertidumbre en la inversi\u00f3n, el nivel de aranceles mantiene relativamente positivo para M\u00e9xico frente a los que se aplican en el resto del mundo.<\/p>\n

Reiter\u00f3 que en el 2026, M\u00e9xico entr\u00f3 con mucha incertidumbre alrededor del T-MEC.<\/p>\n

\u201cVemos un crecimiento de alrededor de 1 por ciento este a\u00f1o, y se mantiene la brecha negativa. Entonces una vez que se resuelva el T-MEC, en la segunda mitad del a\u00f1o, vemos un poco m\u00e1s de actividad econ\u00f3mica, un poco m\u00e1s de inversi\u00f3n, lo cual\u00a0 deja un plano positivo para el 2027\u201d, confi\u00f3.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Entre los tres escenarios previstos para las negociaciones del Tratado M\u00e9xico Estados Unidos Canad\u00e1 (T- MEC), el de mayor probabilidad […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":84644,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[2050],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-84643","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economia"],"yoast_head":"\nEspera S&P revisiones anuales del T-MEC - 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