{"id":85012,"date":"2026-05-22T00:10:39","date_gmt":"2026-05-22T06:10:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/?p=85012"},"modified":"2026-05-21T23:02:58","modified_gmt":"2026-05-22T05:02:58","slug":"aie-advierte-zona-roja-en-mercado-petrolero-por-guerra-en-iran","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/2026\/05\/22\/aie-advierte-zona-roja-en-mercado-petrolero-por-guerra-en-iran\/","title":{"rendered":"AIE advierte \u201czona roja\u201d en mercado petrolero por guerra en Ir\u00e1n"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"nota-justify\">El inicio del pico de demanda de \u2060combustible en el verano boreal, junto con la falta de nuevas \u2060exportaciones de crudo \u2060procedentes de Medio Oriente y el agotamiento de las reservas, podr\u00eda empujar al mercado del petr\u00f3leo a la \u201czona roja\u201d en julio y agosto, dijo el jueves el director de la Agencia Internacional de la Energ\u00eda.<\/p>\n<p class=\"nota-justify\">\u201cPodr\u00edamos entrar en la zona roja en julio o agosto si no vemos que la situaci\u00f3n mejora\u201d, afirm\u00f3 Fatih Birol en un discurso pronunciado en Chatham House, en Londres, en referencia a la crisis de suministro de petr\u00f3leo provocada por la guerra en Ir\u00e1n.<\/p>\n<p class=\"nota-justify\">Los ataques a las infraestructuras energ\u00e9ticas y el cierre efectivo del estrecho de Ormuz por parte de Ir\u00e1n \u2060han eliminado m\u00e1s de 14 millones de barriles diarios (bpd) de suministro de petr\u00f3leo procedente \u2060de Medio Oriente, lo que supone la mayor crisis de suministro de petr\u00f3leo de la historia.<\/p>\n<p class=\"nota-justify\"><strong>La zona roja<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"nota-justify\">Birol no dio m\u00e1s detalles sobre c\u00f3mo ser\u00eda exactamente una \u201czona roja\u201d. Sin embargo, se\u00f1al\u00f3 que el excedente \u200cdel mercado petrolero \u200cprevio a la guerra de Ir\u00e1n, la liberaci\u00f3n coordinada por la AIE de 400 millones de barriles de reservas estrat\u00e9gicas y las reducciones de las existencias comerciales, combinadas, no son suficientes para resolver la crisis.<\/p>\n<p class=\"nota-justify\">\u201cLa soluci\u00f3n m\u00e1s importante es la apertura total e incondicional del estrecho de Ormuz\u201d, afirm\u00f3 Birol.<\/p>\n<p class=\"nota-justify\">La liberaci\u00f3n coordinada de reservas estrat\u00e9gicas de la AIE, integrada por 32 miembros \u2014la mayor de \u200ceste tipo en la historia\u2014, est\u00e1 llegando ahora al mercado a un ritmo de entre 2.5 y 3 millones de barriles al d\u00eda, dijo Birol.<\/p>\n<p class=\"nota-justify\">A ese ritmo, los \u00faltimos suministros de la liberaci\u00f3n inicial de 400 millones de barriles llegar\u00e1n al mercado a principios de agosto, seg\u00fan los c\u00e1lculos de Reuters, coincidiendo con la posible \u201czona roja\u201d de Birol.<\/p>\n<p class=\"nota-justify\">La AIE est\u00e1 preparada para coordinar nuevas liberaciones si es necesario, a\u00f1adi\u00f3 Birol.<\/p>\n<p class=\"nota-justify\"><strong>Recuperaci\u00f3n de producci\u00f3n ser\u00e1 lenta<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"nota-justify\">Llevar\u00e1 mucho tiempo devolver la producci\u00f3n de petr\u00f3leo y la capacidad de refino de Medio Oriente a los niveles previos a la guerra, y el tiempo de recuperaci\u00f3n variar\u00e1 de un pa\u00eds \u200ca otro, se\u00f1al\u00f3 el funcionario.<\/p>\n<p class=\"nota-justify\">\u201cMi mayor temor es Irak\u201d, ya que sus finanzas se han visto gravemente afectadas \u2060por la reducci\u00f3n de los ingresos petroleros, y la falta de capacidad de almacenamiento ha obligado a Irak a cerrar yacimientos petroleros, cuya reactivaci\u00f3n puede resultar complicada, dijo Birol.<\/p>\n<p class=\"nota-justify\">Por otro lado, pa\u00edses como \u2060Arabia Saudita y los Emiratos \u00c1rabes Unidos tienen acceso a financiaci\u00f3n y a tecnolog\u00edas de punta que podr\u00edan facilitar la recuperaci\u00f3n, agreg\u00f3.<\/p>\n<p class=\"nota-justify\">Los futuros del petr\u00f3leo Brent cotizaban el jueves en torno a 108 d\u00f3lares por barril, por debajo de sus m\u00e1ximos de guerra de 126 d\u00f3lares por barril, pero a\u00fan significativamente por encima de los 70 d\u00f3lares por barril a los que cotizaban antes de que comenzara la guerra\u00a0de Estados Unidos e Israel\u00a0con Ir\u00e1n.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>El inicio del pico de demanda de \u2060combustible en el verano boreal, junto con la falta de nuevas \u2060exportaciones de [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":85013,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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