{"id":86435,"date":"2026-07-02T00:06:36","date_gmt":"2026-07-02T06:06:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/?p=86435"},"modified":"2026-07-01T19:39:37","modified_gmt":"2026-07-02T01:39:37","slug":"banamex-revisiones-anuales-del-t-mec-traeran-incertidumbre-el-acuerdo-se-renueva-en-2028","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/politicosaldesnudo.com.mx\/index.php\/2026\/07\/02\/banamex-revisiones-anuales-del-t-mec-traeran-incertidumbre-el-acuerdo-se-renueva-en-2028\/","title":{"rendered":"Banamex: revisiones anuales del T-MEC traer\u00e1n incertidumbre; el acuerdo se renueva en 2028"},"content":{"rendered":"

Las revisiones anuales al Tratado entre M\u00e9xico, Estados Unidos y Canad\u00e1 (T-MEC) limitar\u00e1n la inversi\u00f3n privada en nuestro pa\u00eds, consider\u00f3 Banamex.<\/p>\n

Al mismo tiempo, estim\u00f3, este proceso solo se realizar\u00e1 por los pr\u00f3ximos dos a\u00f1os y para 2028, se anunciar\u00eda una extensi\u00f3n de 16 a\u00f1os.<\/p>\n

Luego de que se diera a conocer que Estados Unidos tom\u00f3 la decisi\u00f3n de no renovar el acuerdo comercial tal como est\u00e1 y en su lugar se har\u00e1n revisiones por los pr\u00f3ximos 10 a\u00f1os, la firma financiera consider\u00f3 que la incertidumbre que se gener\u00f3 previo a la decisi\u00f3n rest\u00f3 alrededor de 0.3 puntos porcentuales al crecimiento del pa\u00eds en 2025.<\/p>\n

\n

\u201cLa inversi\u00f3n privada cay\u00f3 3.3 por ciento anual en 2025, en un contexto en que diversos factores locales y externos afectaron las decisiones de gasto de capital. Una parte importante de esta contracci\u00f3n respondi\u00f3 a factores de incertidumbre, entre ellos el proceso de revisi\u00f3n del T-MEC y la posibilidad de cambios en las condiciones de acceso al mercado estadounidense\u201d, dijo el \u00e1rea de estudios econ\u00f3micos de Banamex.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

En este sentido, precis\u00f3, la incertidumbre relacionada con la revisi\u00f3n del T-MEC \u201crest\u00f3 alrededor de 0.3 puntos porcentuales al crecimiento del PIB en 2025\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u201cLa l\u00f3gica detr\u00e1s de esta estimaci\u00f3n es que una fracci\u00f3n relevante de la ca\u00edda de la inversi\u00f3n privada puede asociarse a factores externos, y que, dentro de \u00e9stos, el tratado comercial habr\u00eda sido el componente dominante\u201d, abund\u00f3.<\/p>\n

Pese a lo anterior, consider\u00f3 Banamex, la decisi\u00f3n no cambia sus pron\u00f3sticos para el crecimiento de la econom\u00eda mexicana este a\u00f1o y el siguiente.<\/p>\n

\n

\u201cYa se consideraba en nuestros pron\u00f3sticos para el PIB de este a\u00f1o que implican un crecimiento econ\u00f3mico moderado de 1.3 por ciento en 2026 y 1.8 por ciento en 2027, toda vez que se prolongar\u00e1 la incertidumbre sobre las condiciones del tratado\u201d.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Agreg\u00f3 que en su escenario base, se contempla que habr\u00e1 revisiones anuales hasta 2028, cuando pr\u00e1cticamente concluye la administraci\u00f3n del presidente Donald Trump, el acuerdo trilateral se extender\u00e1 otros 16 a\u00f1os.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Las revisiones anuales al Tratado entre M\u00e9xico, Estados Unidos y Canad\u00e1 (T-MEC) limitar\u00e1n la inversi\u00f3n privada en nuestro pa\u00eds, consider\u00f3 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":86436,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[2050],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-86435","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economia"],"yoast_head":"\nBanamex: revisiones anuales del T-MEC traer\u00e1n incertidumbre; 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